ApparatChick

Must buy CDs!

2010-04-06T14:01:00.002-05:00

I designed a webpage for my friend Jesse Sprinkle. He's an awesome musician, and he's trying to sell his backlog of CDs to fund another trip to Uganda with the Uganda Water Project.

So go buy CDs.

Bookpool closed!

2009-10-10T18:41:00.001-05:00

I was trying to get to Bookpool to order my once-a-year technical book, and I found out it closed! That's a bummer.

This is in their memory.

Green shoots: Part 2

2009-09-18T22:01:00.002-05:00

Following up, it looks like Texas sales taxes were down 11% in July, 6.8% in August, and 2.2% for the year.

Bad third quarter, bad school season sales, bad trend, though not as bad as Oklahoma. Christmas will be more telling.

This is just creepy

2009-09-18T21:48:00.002-05:00

They swept the area, in front of the Department of Veterans Affairs, with bomb-sniffing dogs and installed magnetometers in the middle of the street, put up barricades to keep pedestrians out, and took positions with binoculars atop trucks. Though the produce stand was only a block or so from the White House, the first lady hopped into her armored limousine and pulled into the market amid the wail of sirens.

Then, and only then, could Obama purchase her leafy greens. "Now it's time to buy some food," she told several hundred people who came to watch. "Let's shop!"

Cowbells were rung. Somebody put a lei of marigolds around Obama's neck.

Cowbells? Chains of marigolds, waiting to hang around her neck? A warm-up speech from the frickin' mayor? Crowds of hundreds called together just to hear retarded pap about "There are times when putting together a healthy meal is harder than you might imagine."

Wow. You don't say.

How often does she cook again? Let's ask the double-digit White House kitchen staff!

This article has other gems. "The first thing world leaders, prime ministers, kings, queens ask me about is the White House garden." I'm ... sure. "I've learned that when my family eats fresh food, healthy food, that it really affects how we feel, how we get through the day. Well, now, that's just a truism. You preach it, girlfriend! If you were here now, I'd hug you like you were the queen of England!

And then ... oh, well, I guess Dana Milbank ran out of things to quote from Michelle's "brief speech to the vendors and patrons." Which did involve "a soundstage, an interpreter for the deaf, three TV satellite trucks and the closing of part of downtown Washington."

Aside from her glib way with words, this is really, really, insanely disturbing. We have slipped into banana-republic worhsipping mode disturbingly easily. Mature countries don't hang around prepared to worship Dear Leader and Dear Leader's Woman whenever they crop up, like extra props shoved into the wings, a chorus waiting to dance as soon as the band strikes up. Mature people don't need their ego stroked like this.

This woman actually put out the effort to build a fricking stage for a fricking trip to a produce stand. With deaf interpreters. And little people waiting to drape flowers over her neck. And a mayor of a major city to introduce her. And bullet-proof humvees fore and aft, with bomb-sniffing dogs. And fricking cowbells to announce her entrance like fricking heralds for royalty, only in a more earthy - need we say humble? - way.

It is surreal.

This is not the face of freedom, folks.

Green shoots: Part 1

2009-09-18T21:37:00.003-05:00

I know Oklahoma, so Oklahoma news gets covered.

Declining revenue is forcing state officials to order a 5 percent across-the-board cut to state agencies for the second consecutive month....

Preliminary reports show General Revenue Fund collections last month totaled $335.2 million. That amount is $154.9 million or 31.6 percent below the prior year and $131.3 million or 28.2 percent below the estimate.

Last month, financial officials ordered a 5 percent across-the-board cut in budget allocations after [state treasurer Scott] Meacham said revenue fell by more than 26 percent in July.

This was switfly followed by the fast and decisive plea by brave Democratic governor Brad Henry not to panic.

"We've gotten some new projections from the Tax Commission that don't look great but they do show that over the next few months we ought to be in a little bit better shape because of the traditionally higher collection months." The Governor says July and August are traditionally low collection months.

My favorite part about that is that August's back to school sales are the second largest sales period of the year, behind Christmas. So, "traditionally low" is a traditional political lie.

The results of these traditionally low just lower than we anticipated by not in any untraditional way sales months? Judicial salaries are frozen for two years, and Tulsa Public schools have had $720,000 less money for the last six weeks, with $500,000 less per month for the rest of the year. (Not that the money wasn't wasted anyway.) Plus round 2 of 5% across the board budget cuts.

I wonder what the other states look like? Our sales taxes are down 30% and state income taxes about the same. Social Security has been negative for 8 months of the last year (including July and August of this year, and, I think, every month since February 2009), and federal income taxes are down 30-40%. As in, through three weeks ago.

So what are the signs of recovery? More layoffs are bound to follow; they've been slower even than they could have been because of promises of recover in the third quarter. If that doesn't materialize - which it doesn't appear to in anything but NAR's housing numbers, which are bogus - then layoffs and cutbacks are inevitable.

Hooray, economy!

And that's really the problem, isn't it?

2009-09-12T18:56:00.004-05:00

From the WSJ:

Other Democrats suggested the protesters are embittered, fringe conservatives fueled by radio and TV talk-show hosts. "There's a lot of energy, but it's negative energy," said Democratic strategist John Lapp. "At the end of the day, Republicans are left with bomb-throwing, screaming, frothing and a lot of opposition."

For their part, Republican leaders have been grappling with whether to embrace or distance themselves from the mounting protests.

I can tell you, right now, if you don't know which side you're on, you are on the side of the Redcoats/Obama Democrats. Thanks for the support, Bush/McCain RINOs!

As a side note, I refused to attend any July 4 protests in disgust after they let John "Eye Care" Sullivan - who voted against-for-against-for TARP - speak at the Tax Day protest, with cheers and sweet words.

My other favorite quote:

The 54 riders on the Tallahassee bus provide a window into the new conservative energy. On the road, they listened to reminiscences of President Ronald Reagan's life, including his battle against Soviet-style communism.

Well, that's really the War on Terror of 1980, ain't it? The *-style naming convention doesn't really capture what was going on. Hint: he didn't fight "Soviet-style" Communism. He fought Soviets (in the USSR) and Communists (here and abroad). It wasn't like he was in favor of Chinese or Cuban style Communism and just liked to pick on the Ruskies.

And it's Communism, dude. Big C. The second totalinarian mindset we fought, after defeating fascism.

So which is it, drugs or kiddie porn?

2009-09-12T18:46:00.003-05:00

There's a scene in the first X-Files movie, Fight the Future, where one of the sources for Mulder was being discredited and was under investigation. When Mulder accused him of lying at a meeting, the man looked at him, sighed, and asked, "So which is it, drugs or kiddie porn?" (The answer - drugs, in his case.)

My brother is reading a Star Wars book (hold the laughter, please) and he sent me a quote just this afternoon that he especially liked about the ruminations of a political prisoner, that went something along the lines of, "We all commit suicide now, whether we want to or not."

And then we have this.

Key Figure in Blagojevich Corruption Probe Found Dead

CHICAGO - Ousted Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's former chief fundraiser died Saturday at a Chicago hospital, a hospital spokesman said.

Christopher Kelly, 51, arrived at Cook County's Stroger hospital by ambulance at 5:15 a.m. Saturday and was pronounced dead at 10:46 a.m., said spokesman Marcel Bright.

Bright did not know whether Kelly was conscious when he arrived in the emergency room or where he was transported from. He said the body was still at the hospital, but was to be taken to the morgue where an autopsy was to be performed.

No cause of death yet. What do you think it will be, heart attack, suicide, or shot while trying to escape?

UPDATE :: 10:02pm
Looks like the answer is suicide!

Or should I say "suicide."

Anecdotal recovery of the housing market

2009-09-06T16:38:00.002-05:00

I'm looking for a permanent place in Texas, as many of you know. Like, all three readers. (Hi, guys!)

I was initially looking in Paris, because of the easy drive back to Tulsa. It's a city of about 25,000 people. When I was looking before, in July, there were 3-5 houses for rent listed in the newspaper. I didn't like the looks when I visited, so I didn't get anything there. But now there are 15 listings in the paper.

I started looking in Denison about three weeks ago, after I struck out in Paris. At the time, there were about 80 houses listed in the paper, which intrigued me. Denison is the same size city as Paris, and house sale prices are significantly higher than Paris, almost twice. Now, there are 115 houses listed in the Denison paper, and a few chinks are occuring in the real estate prices. (Bonham was the only place within 30 miles of Denison with remotely affordable land prices. The average? Around $5000 per acre, give or take. Recent listings have been at $1250 an acre. The current listings are still high, but that's a significant drop, IMO.)

So, there's a change.

My favorite chart!

2009-09-06T16:21:00.004-05:00

I look forward to geoff's graph of the unemployment numbers every month.

The obvious trend is a lot more negative than the official numbers, natch. As the Atlanta fed chief says, real unemployment (people who want just and don't have them, not just people who haven't maxed out their unemployment yet) is closer 17%. There's another good chart at the link, showing the actual number of jobs in the country. Which — SHOCKER! — actually dropped in July, when employment allegedly went up.

Hooray, economy!

I want to be Mark Steyn when I grow up.

2009-09-05T21:02:00.002-05:00

Only, you know, prettier.

Altogether now! Let us chant for mankind and use our pens to write, "O beloved Obama, our courageous president, we are all servants defending the hope for you and marching to change."

And, unlike Saddam's Iraq, we don't have the mitigating condition of being a one-man psycho state invented by the British Colonial Office after lunch one day in 1922.

Any self-respecting schoolkid, enjoined by his principal to be a "servant" to the head of state, would reply, "Get lost, creep." And, if they still taught history in American schools, he'd add, "Oh, and by the way, that question was settled in 1776."

To accompany President Obama's classroom speech this week, the White House and America's "educators" drafted some accompanying study materials. Children would be invited to write letters to themselves saying what they could do to "help the President."

My suggestion: "Not tell people what I really think about his lousy health care plan."

Well, after the unwelcome media attention, that exercise was hastily dropped.

For the rest of us, the president does not yet require a written test from grown-ups after his speeches, but it's surely only a matter of time.

In the mail!

2009-09-04T21:53:00.002-05:00

In a blatant rip-off of Instapundit, here's my mail stuff!

Okay, actually I got a Chi straightening iron in the mail today because my 18-month-old CVS-brand flat iron had mousse and hairspray burned onto it, and when I tried to clean it by scraping it with a butter knife, the coating on the plates got scoured. So I splurged and got a fancy straightening iron from drugstore.com.

But I ordered a bunch of stuff from Booksamillion a while back, so I'm reading my way through the pile. I just finished The Nine Tailors by Dorothy Sayers, I am starting The Lady in the Lake by Raymond Chandler, and East of Eden is on my nightstand. I also found a full set of A History of the English-Speaking Peoples by Churchill on alibris, being resold by the Goodwill of Tacoma of all places, and I snapped that up. It was a bargain at $52 (there were first editions on ebay for $1500 or more, and it's impossible to find all four books on Amazon).

I also bought the 100 Mysteries Movie Collection awhile back. Yes, yes, that inspired collection that is so highly beloved of James Lileks.

And then I have to do some rental-hunting. Whatevs. I'll see how much time I have leftover, because my holiday is totally planned.

Robert Wenzel's been on fire

2009-09-04T21:46:00.002-05:00

I've been quiet lately, but Robert Wenzel has been banging a bunch of nifty drums. A sampling:

Should Congress Run Monetary Policy?

The European Alcohol High-Tax Avoidance Map

Stockpile Incandescent Light Bulbs, Now

Phony Government Bank Bailout "Profits"

The Evil Ezekiel Emanuel

Check it out.

Stray cat update

2009-08-22T20:27:00.005-05:00

E Broderick Noonan asked for an update, so here it is. (Thanks for your interest, EBN!)

This is technically my first stray cat post, although I put out an SOS on proteinwisdom and Ace of Spades.

A couple of weeks ago, I found a stray cat. A scrawny, starving muckled gray tomcat who was sitting in front of the post office, looking miserable. It was hot, and he was panting and drooling slightly, but wouldn't touch the water bowl in front of him. (Thanks, kind anonymous soul, for putting that out there. That was a kindness.) He butted my shins and wanted patted, and when I reached down, I noticed a nasty gash on his side and a smaller one on the back of his neck.

I scooped him up and dropped him off at a vet the next town over. She cleaned him up, tended his gasheds (probably from a nasty dog or cat fight a few days before), and said that his jaw was permanently out of place from being hit by a car. In fact, she estimates he's been hit by a car twice in the past year, from old and poorly healed damage.

She said despite his hunger, he wasn't eating, and it wasn't attributable to his jaw being out of place. She diagnosed him with tetanus (or something like it), fed him antibiotics and forcefed him for five days. And he began to improve.

The first round of tests was good: he didn't have feline leukemia. The second round of tests was more sobering. He probably does have feline infectious peritonitis. The good news is it's the dry form (with the wet form, he'd die within days). However, he will have a shorter lifespan, five or six years at the most.

And it's contagious, so he cannot be around other cats.

I currently have two stray cats, so I can't take him in. I am also still influx, but eventually moving permanently to Texas, and the rentals I've been looking at won't give me a separate place to keep him. My home in Oklahoma has an unused chicken coop, and my dad cleaned it out and fixed up a nice little place for him. Actually, it's practically a cat palace (nice large windows, a ramp going up to a high shelf he can perch on, good breeze, lots of food), and I think he likes it. He's currently camped out there, but it's not a permanent solution, since I'm not exactly permanent, and he can't live with my other cats.

So, I'm looking for a home for him. He's a sweet-natured tomcat with a crooked jaw, rum luck, and an infectious disease but otherwise good enough health. I'm calling him Punkin because I'm hoping a cute name will make him more appealing. (My natural preference would be to name him Henry. He looks like a lopsided Henry to me.) I'll put up pictures soon.

Any takers?

The unedited face of liberalism

2009-08-18T21:05:00.008-05:00

From my aunt.

Hi You All,

I know you have signed off Thomas and that is okay, but I was just thinking...I really like all those government programs that make things free... you know like the library... it's free. Nobody ever goes there except foreign students and old people. Tired parents bring their kids in for half an hour of story time. I think that is what it would be like with options on healthcare. Nobody uses it except when they can't get what they need anywhere else. Just thinking about all those socialist places like libraries, schools, etc, just seem to make America sort of... well America. It use to be that those corporate business type people supported those socialist places like libraries and museums that are still open to the public and that don't really make a profit but depend on wealthy donors and all. I guess now the government just works hard for all of us not to fall into a major economic depression. In fact if it weren't for our tax dollars at work that is exactly what would have happened. Good thing we pay taxes.

I saw something about Africa and, boy, was I glad that someone put a water line in around here! They drink filthy water over there... maybe they should pay taxes to be able to drink real water. I love my government. My government = the American people.

Peace, love, harmony and healthcare for all!!!

(I hope you all got a bit of a happy laugh from this email!)

Happiness to all Republicans (No yelling at town hall meetings) and Healthcare to all Democrats!!! (HA HA!!!)

Me

P.S. An apple a day keeps the democratic health plan options away. Smile and be happy because you are healthy!

This breathtaking ignorance is equaled only by its breathtaking contempt and spite. The African crack is beyond the pale.

Posting it on the interwebs was the best response I could think of.

[ed. I added what I hope is a warmer endorsement of the UWP. My brother, on receiving the link, said my previous comment was tepid. And they deserve good words. Also, I have moved my opening comments here to the end, so my aunt's words can speak for themselves.]

My cousin sent out the famous Axelrod Astroturfing email last week, comforting my liberal aunt, uncle, other uncle, and cousin, and inexplicably including me, my conservative aunt, my conservative dad, and my libertarian brother.

There followed a slightly heated email argument primarily between my brother and my Axelrodding cousin, with occasional outbursts from everyone but me [ed. I did send one email in response to my brother and against both healthcare and confiscatory taxes]. (An email routing quirk kept me from getting any emails but my brother's. Sweet silence.)

My liberal aunt called me selfish for being against the bill, and my baby brother just went off. After typing probably 50 pages of emails over four days and at the risk of going from the heated but high brow philosophy with my cousin to a possibly personal assault on the others, my brother signed off (with a fascinating link to this Atlantic story).

And my liberal aunt smelled blood, and sent this email (which Thomas forwarded to me, since I have been blessedly spared from this.)

It is unedited. For your reference: Thomas is my brother, and the reference to Africa is because, to argue that I am not selfish, Thomas mentioned I have given a little money to the Ugandan Water Project (an awesomely worthy project that is both practical and consistent).

When I don't feel like blogging...

2009-08-12T11:42:00.004-05:00

I watch TV!

Yes, things have been happening in the world. I hear the recession ended, so that's nice. There's all those thousands of unwashed peasants shouting profanities at hard-working people like Arlen Specter who are just trying to make the world a better and healthier place. I think there was some kind of performance art or maybe a street festival in Iran and Honduras, which is also nice. But I have been busy, so I haven't blogged.

Some time has been sunk in looking for a home. (I toured Denison and Paris last week with my parents to accept their sage advice on home rentals and/or purchases and was reminded again, no matter how much I love them, why I don't do family vacations.) Then, my brother hosted a Jesse Sprinkle concert in Tulsa two weeks ago, and I saw Bill Mallonee in concert at the Blue Door in OKC this past Saturday. Plus, work. I almost drowned in tech reviews from engineers about two weeks ago; some CPR and a six-pack of Dr Pepper pulled me through the worst of it, but it's not over.

So what do I do in these stressful days of high living? I watch TV.

Specifically, Hulu. They have some great shows; I worked my way through all three seasons of Arrested Development over lunch, I hen-pecked through about half of John Doe, and I have recently discovered Spaced. I love Spaced. It's like some English guy woke up some morning and said, "you know what would make a great twenty-something comedy a la 'Friends'? Dr. Who, that's who!" And then they made a TV show in some guys apartment. Truly awesome. Check it out. (Warning: they do drop the F-bomb a couple of times per show; I think it's a British thing, because the other swearing is at a minimum. Or maybe I'm just jaded after rewatching Slings and Arrows.)

Bold predictions for the end of the year

2009-07-14T15:17:00.004-05:00

Official unemployment is at 14.5%. (Unofficial/reality will, of course, be higher.)

The Dow Jones Average will be at 7100, possibly lower.

There will be a major terrorist or rogue state attack against a Western country (not the US).

Cap and trade will have been passed.

Health care socialization will have been passed.

At least one major, direct income tax will have been passed. (Remember - Obama has some kind of tax advisory group preparing a report for him, due in early December. Merry Christmas!)

That's all I got for now.

The Palin Implosion

2009-07-05T16:59:00.003-05:00

It got me called a troll at both Ace of Spades and Protein Wisdom, but I think Palin's resignation signals the end of any national (or even Alaska-wide) political ambitions for Sarah Palin.

I can't see any other outcome than that, for one of two reasons.

First option: She can't put her family through it anymore. For a solid year, people have been digging through her trash, making sex jokes about two of three of her daughters, making mean-girl jokes about the third (remember the snark about Piper smoothing down Trig's hair at the convention?), and making wildly cruel allegations about the birth of her second son: the speculation that he's the result of incest between her husband and daughter, that she tried to have him aborted, that she cause his disability through poor pre-natal care (wtf, by the way). Troopergate and the ethics probes. Damage to her husband's business.

So, option 1 (and the one I believe), is that she simply will not put her family through it anymore, and she's out.

The thing is, that reasoning holds forever. It will never get better. The press will never be less vicious, the personal attacks and money-draining lawsuits will never end, and the GOP will never back her up. If she thinks this situation is too much for her family right now (and who wouldn't), then she would have to recognize that this is it, period. No more electoral politics.

Option 2, in my opinion, puts her in a terribly unfavorable light, but this is the one the dextrosphere seems to be yammering after. In this scenario, Palin is hampered terribly by holding her office. She can't spout off on television, she has too many responsibilities to do speaking tours or fundraisers or media appearances. She's hamstrung by being governor and being bound to the party line, yet she is still in the bullseye of the only target the MSM or Democrats are aiming at.

In this scenario, she's deciding to fight back with an eye to a national office (ideally President, but possibly senator). So, she is ditching her elected office in a bold bid to promote her conservative principles (and herself) in the lower 48.

If that is the case, I wouldn't vote for that woman no matter who she ran against. (And, disclaimer, I don't think this option is right.) In this case, she decided that being governor of a strategic state, and a state she purportedly loves, at the edge of an economic freefall and energy-based turmoil, is too confining for her own personal ambition, so she ditches them halfway through her first term because the state just isn't going it for her anymore and she wants to concentrate on getting herself a better position.

Her followers can spin that a lot of ways — she can't defend herself from personal attacks, or she'll better serve the cause out in the open, or Alaska isn't getting its money's worth — but it comes down to saying that putting her personal (and arrogantly untried) ambition is significantly more important to her than honoring her commitments, and that she is simply too good to have to finish out her first frieaking term in major office.

Dude, not even Obama pulled that one. Neither did Hillary. And right there, we just named the two most unqualified people to run for the presidency in recent memory.

If she did option 2, no matter how appealing she is personally or how badly the conservative movement needs a leader, she is unfit for office. She cannot be trusted, and she is irresponsible. And delusional: the Presidency (as dim-bulb Obama is just starting to figure out) is a difficult job. You don't get to learn on the job. This is my complaint about Harriet Miers, redux: there are thousands of people who have actually devoted themselves to learning this stuff. I don't mean Romney or Huckabee (who can now both run as governors who finished their first terms), but even people like Rush Limbaugh or Mark Steyn, who are more familiar with a broad array of policy positions. Or people in business who actually have executive experience (policy dud that she is, Carly Fiorelli comes to mind). Rome wasn't built in a day; neither are presidents. Obama affirmative-actioned his way in and is winging it. Look how successful that is. As McCain's VP or as governor of Alaska, Palin was in a position to gain experience, to hone her instincts. If she decided she's too good for training, she doesn't deserve another shot.

And it would not just be me. Her opponents in any election could ream her with thise, and there would be no defense. "When the going gets tough, Sarah Palin passes the ball and leaves office!" Her state cannot be too happy with her, since they elected her and her "plummeting" poll numbers are still around 70% approval, so they weren't exactly leaving her out to dry. And anyone who has ever had a rough job and didn't quit isn't going to feel a lot of sympathy with her. She was elected to four years and, her first time in, bailed halfway through. Winners never quit, and quitters....

Can you hear the TV ads?

If she thinks she was doing this to position herself for bigger and better things without the fetters of doing her job, then she (and her followers) are delusional.

I would like to reiterate, I do not think the second option is true.

What is really disturbing to me is how desperately so many people on the right want it to be true. As Ace*** said, "For anyone NOT named Sarah Palin, you do not contort yourself into strange pretzels trying to come up with counterintuive-bordering-on-non-Euclidean reasons why this actually makes her a stronger candidate."

But it's not option 2 (I really think), and the rumors of a scandal are ludicrous. (Really? Scandal? Like there is a closet left un-tossed in the fevered search for her skeletons?) So option 1: persecution.

This is a deep and worrisome victory for the Democrats/MSM. Palin joins an elite group of Gingrich and Bork who have been hounded, ridiculed, and lied out of public office. If it is option 1, then the tragedy is that a decent woman had her family used as a cudgel against her to keep her out of office. Whatever else, that's just not fair.

*** And, yes, considering how wildly wrong Ace was about the bailouts and TARP, it does give me pause to think that we're in agreement now. But that doesn't mean he, or I, am wrong now. Although, some of the lefty trolls on Protein Wisdom actually made sense, too. Yes, more pause. I'm still not seeing the flaw in my reasoning. But I am scared.

Unexpected to whom?

2009-06-30T10:29:00.007-05:00

Seriously, the stupid on Wall Street is zapping any sympathy I had for their innocent greed and naivete that led to the economic situation.

Stocks reversed early gains Tuesday and moved lower after a private research group said consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June.

Investors had been expecting the Conference Board's measure of consumer sentiment to hold steady following big jumps in April and May.

Okay, I hate to break the news people, but everything reported in April and May was a lie. Remember when stocks briefly dipped because they were convinced that the Labor Department was lying about the number of jobs lost? (Which, by the way, they were. In their own report, they said there were 345,000 jobs lost — not over 500,000, hooray! — except that 787,000 people lost their jobs.) Suddenly, housing prices have been adjusted to have dropped 18% in April*** - like they haven't already known that for 2 months, but apparently government/banker types are endlessly gullible. And housing sales didn't so much recover in May as drop.

Of course, according to the Yahoo article, these stooges looked at a massive surge in oil prices as a reason to send stocks up yesterday. It takes a real genius to look at rising gas and electricity prices on top of increased inflation as a good thing. And by genius I mean retard.

The thing is, as I've said before, the government and the financial classes are betting everything on a third quarter recovery. Everything. Jobs that haven't been lost (if corporate profits are down 90%, the only reason not to have matching layoffs is because of a quick recovery), buying and manufacturing haven't dropped completely off a cliff. Because if the downturn — the worst EVAH! — is only going to last another three months, why panic?

But normal people have to live this. They know, for example, if their house is selling for a lot less than they asked or if it won't sell at all. They know if their credit cards are maxed out, so they can't buy any more. They know if their loans are going unpaid. And they adjust accordingly. Without a silver bullet, they know that their own lifestyles are going to require adjustments. So why is this such a shock to bankers and government types?

Welcome to the third quarter, folks.

*** I heard that on the radio today, for year over year numbers in April, and it's in the Yahoo story. CNN is toeing the party line with about a 7% YOY drop in prices, and claiming the April improved from March. Let me clear my throat.... bwahahahahahahahaha!

Hooray, economy!

Oh, another personal update

2009-06-13T18:19:00.002-05:00

I have friends who have kindly offered me their address in Texas (won't even take a dime in rent!) until my project is over and I can find a place of my own. They are good people. However, my dogs - Mal, Jayne, and Harvey - are still in Oklahoma, living in the house I shared with my brother. As is my beloved cat Winston. And a red-eared slider turtle that my brother rescued and patched up after a run-in with a car last week. And my garden.

I'm a little homesick.

So, instead of spending the weekend working on my project (as I really need to) or finding a place of my own so that I can quit living on the good-nature of friends (as would be polite) I am spending weekends back home, tending my garden and my pets.

But I'm checking out realtor.com for land sites and looking at panelized home companies (a Lego-style building project for me and my dad; father-daughter bonding!), so that counts, right?

Something that bothered me today

2009-06-13T18:14:00.002-05:00

I saw a married woman, one of those friendly acquaintances who I say hi to all the time, chat about her kids, that kind of thing. She was holding hands with her boss and wandering around a mall, and as soon as she saw me, she dropped hands and stepped two steps away from him. She said hi and chatted for a minute like everything was normal, and then I went on.

I'd like to think I'm suspicious, but I've had a terrible, terrible feeling ever since. Thing is - she has kids. For the sake of her family, I won't give any details (you never know what gets cached on Google) but they had a terrible tragedy just a few months ago. I know problems are common in a marriage after serious trauma but - did I mention she has kids? I hate to be all Ozzie-and-Harriet sunbeams and morality, but some things you just shouldn't do to kids. Period. Especially after what they've all been through.

Today, I am sad.

And I really wish I had gone left in Waldenbooks instead of right into Dillard's, because that way I never would have seen this.

Light posting

2009-05-28T13:25:00.002-05:00

Light posting is my habit, anyway, but I want to note: this weekend is the Transition to Texas. It is technically a "move" in that my residency is supposed to shift, but I'm really going to be staying with friends of the family for a couple of months until my project is released and I can take some time off (like, a week or less) to find a permanent place.

I'm hoping for a house. I'm thinking 25 acres, and I'd like a Craftsman style house. As long as it's sound in the foundation, I'm willing to do fix-up work. And I'd like to spend $100,000. Or less. (Hear that? That's the sound of my fairy godmother, spinning that pipe dream out of whole cloth. Thanks, fairy godmother!)

An alternative is to find a semi-permanent rental, but no one seems to take pets. What does Texas have against pets? (Although, my current rental is owned by my parents. Apparently landlords in Oklahoma don't like pets, either. In fairness, one half of my landlord couple doesn't, either, but my mom totally overrules him.)

But, the point is, I'm packing my bags and heading Texas-way. Then driving back weekends, as I can swing it, to visit my dog babies and/or check out properties.

Glad this is getting some Drudge play

2009-05-28T13:19:00.003-05:00

Drudge is listing this Washington Examiner atory about partisan-driven closings for Chrysler dealers.

This (like all half-way decent conspiracy theories) is something I totally believe, and I'm glad it's getting some attention. One commenter at Ace's was trying to say that since the National Auto Dealers Association donates 2:1 to GOP candidates and groups, it makes sense that more GOP donors would be closed than Democratic. Except, statistically, shouldn't it be somewhat near 2:1? Not, like, 788:1?

There are two things that are important to remember about the closings (aside from the fact that they aren't necessarily necssary):

Many of these dealers were profitable. Why would you close someone making money for you?

Many of those locations, Chrystler/car czar is shopping for a replacement franchise. Even if a profitable franchise is closed because the analysis of the region is bad, why would you shop for a replacement?

Donor lists are available at Open Secrets. The car czar — who apparently had a hand in the "restructuring" scheme — is married to the main DNC fundraiser. Think they don't know who is giving where?

Interesting, is all I say.

Song to end the day

2009-05-18T22:55:00.002-05:00

I woke up with this song in my head, so it's fitting to go to bed with it.

i'm sorry you had to sell the farm
yeah i'm sorry you bet it all
why's it always seem to come down
to a desk and four walls

'cause what you did yesterday
what you said in the past
it no longer holds sway
you fall out of favor fast

Thomas played that a lot during Hillary's losing bid for the Democratic nomination last year. It fit.

It's a crying shame...

2009-05-18T22:46:00.002-05:00

... but it could be a lot worse. A week ago, there was a brief thunderstorm, as I said earlier, and a bolt of lightning traveled up the cable wire and blew out my cable modem and my routing server. We had rain daily for over three weeks, finally ending in a sunny Sunday yesterday. In one of the stormy reprises on Thursday, five houses burned in varying degrees of destruction. Really, a cable modem and a server are a small thing to lose.

Anyway, the cable modem came in Wednesday, and the power supply came in Thursday. (And Wednesday and Thursday, Melvin completed repairs on the line.) As you've all probably guessed, the power supply was fine, so the replacement did no good. It was the motherboard in my server. However, my brother plugged the hard drives into a spare server (literally, just the week before, Thomas had brought it offline to cut down on the heat in the server closet), and they worked. Huzzah! That had been the great fear, that if the motherboard had fallen, the hard drives had no hope. Like Rohan and Gondor. So, Thomas spent most of Friday getting everything back online: making sure the service were running, getting the email working again, and making sure that the DNS and DHCP services were humming. (For some reason, there was some confusion with IP addresses. Every computer was reassigned a new IP address, instead of its old one, so I was never quite connecting to the computer I thought I was. Oh, how we laughed....) We're back and full strength now, though!

Anyway, that was exciting. I'll be posting again tomorrow, and it will be great.

The day the Internet died

2009-05-13T15:05:00.002-05:00

A random blast of lightning during a short thunderstorm yesterday morning killed my Internet. According to the cable guy (Melvin the Awesome), it fried about three miles of wire, heading from roughly my house south. The lightning traveled up the cable wire and killed the ethernet port in the cable modem (which, sadly, still thought it was alive and working, like a crippled Thomas Train), and then traveled to my router and killed it.

My router is also my DHCP server, DNS server, email server, print server, and Active Directory domain controller. So, although my cable is back now thanks to the efforts of Melvin and an overnighted cable modem from Amazon, my personal network is still screwy and it's difficult for some of my computers to talk to each other. I can still talk to my work computer from my laptop (so I can work more or less as normal) and, of course, use that computer alone. But I can't get any of my old emails, so that stinks. And using my VPN is ... fun.

Let us hope that the power supply that comes in tomorrow is all that's necessary to repair my poor, poor router. Her name is auntgertrude; remember her in prayer. Otherwise, I'm going to be in a tight spot.

Song of the day

2009-05-10T19:33:00.004-05:00

I have a soft spot for Switchfoot. There were so many fun Christian bands in the 1990s: Switchfoot, Plankeye, Third Day, Newsboys, Prayer Chain, Kosmo's Express, Jennifer Knapp (the early years), Audio Adrenaline, Supertones, Delirious (before their dark descent into praise and worship music). We had a super small youth group, basically me, my brother, and two other sets of brothers who had some friends occasionally drop in. After a few months, we didn't even have a youth pastor anymore, so it was just us teens, hanging out in the sanctuary ('cause it had a sound system!) as the adults had Bible study in the Sunday school rooms. The six-to-eight of us would mainly listen to 20 minutes of rock music and then do some Bible study, eat snacks, and cruise Sonic every Wednesday night, all six-to-eight of us crammed into my mom's Lincoln Towncar.

Some of those bands have stood the test of time better than others, but I remember all of those albums fondly. Anyway, one of my favorite songs in high school was "Chem 6A" from Switchfoot's first album "The Legend of Chin." To me, "Chem6A" by Switchfoot brings to mind youth group, summer, and pizza. Good times.

That brings me to today's song! And, really, this is just justification for the fact that I have "The Beautiful Letdown" stuck in my head. Their album (also titled "The Beautiful Letdown") went platinum, so it wasn't, like, limited to high school youth group. You may have even heard this before. At least, it's not impossible.

So, for today:

We're still chasin our tails and the rising sun
And our dark water planet's
Still spinning in a race
Where no one wins and no one's won.

...

Easy living, not much like your name
Easy dying, you look just about the same
Won't you please take me off your list
Easy living please come on and let me down

Interesting debate about the GOP breakup

2009-05-10T18:05:00.003-05:00

Gary Becker has an interesting little article up about the break in the GOP.

In some ways, I agree with him. There are two major camps in the Republican party: international hawks (covering some old-school GOPers who were pro-Iraq War and libertarians and centrist Democrats who were for the War on Terrorists) and fiscal conservatives (with some small government types, mainly Reagan Republicans and, again, libertarians). A third group is made up of social cons who, as the name implies, suddenly find religion when they need an electoral bailout.

It's a good question to ask, Mr. Becker.

I disagree, however, that these groups cannot be coherently united; I think his example of Reagan as a non-interventionist, small government conservative proves that. For all of this non-interventionism, and Reagan wasn't nearly as interventionist as Nixon, Bush I or II, or Clinton, Reagan still accomplished the downfall of the Soviet Union through prinicipled and clear foreign policy objectives. And - bonus! - he was prolife.

The thing is, Reagan is in body adn in spirit dead. There are no principled conservative leaders; the GOP is simply broken into groups, and any given politician or fundraiser simply selects the group he's most comfortable pandering to. As I say in the comments:

The GOP isn't actually hawkish; they pander to hawks and make noises about saber rattling, but they don't have coherent principals anymore than Clinton did when he bombed Afghanistan. Same with "fiscal" conservatives like McCain or Coburn, who vote for fascist and massive government bailouts. And social conservatives make noises about Terry Schiavo while — actually, I have no idea what they do. Social conservatism is like rehab for Republican politicians; it's what they start shouting when they're caught with their pants down or they're three points behind in the polls. I don't think anyone really is a social conservative in party politics.

But the GOP is a big tent of disfunctional parasites in three different camps who hate each other and don't have any core beliefs.

Pop over to the Becker-Posner Blog and give it a round in the comments, if you have strong feelings on the subject.

For my part, I got my new Independent-stamped voters registration card last month. No more dogs of mine are fighting under that big tent.

Agatha Christie slams Barack Obama's mustard choices

2009-05-10T17:54:00.002-05:00

"There," said Mrs. Worrit, pausing to take a breath, "I think that's all you're likely to want. I've ordered the French mustard."

"Not Dijon, is it? They always try to give you Dijon."

"I don't know who he is, but it's Esther Dragon, the one you like, isn't it?"

"Quite right," said Sir Stafford. "You're a wonder."

~ Passenger to Frankfurt, page 20

I will follow up if I find any disparaging references to arugula.

Worth a read

2009-05-10T11:57:00.004-05:00

reason asked about details on the stress tests, and I seem to remember reading them somewhere. So, I'm going to try to find it.

In the meantime, read this by Mencius Moldbug. It's a month old but, really, it's timeless. 'Cause it's about zombies!

[Update]
Here's one good essay, though it's not the one I was thinking of. Basically, these "stress tests" don't examine actual loans made by the bank and the analysis was done by bank examiners, not by trading examiners like the SEC. One argument I heard was that the stress tests assume it is impossible to know what the value or risks associated with assets are right now (i.e., their real current value) but that it is entirely possible to accurately predict these assets values and risks under hypothetical future scenarios created for the stress test. That's ... optimistic.

[Update #2]
Also, today's Dilbert is really good.

[Update #3]
And here it is! Tinkerbell Goes to Wall Street.

Here’s one thing that feeds my doubts. A bank is insolvent if its liabilities exceed its assets. This would be easy to determine if the assets in particular were easy to value. But many are not, so we cannot get a snapshot of the current solvency of banks.

But, apparently the whole idea of the stress test is to estimate bank solvency under alternative scenarios of future unemployment, economic growth, interest rates, housing prices, etc.

So, apparently we are to understand that it is impossible to determine bank solvency at the current moment because we cannot value the assets, but we can estimate their future value under various future economic contingencies.

[snip]

But, if it were that easy to determine the “true” value of these assets, why is it that they are so illiquid, 7 months post-Lehman, and after the Fed has created unprecedented amounts of liquidity? How could there be such a big disconnect between “true” asset values and market prices?

As they say, read the whole thing.

Apparently, the real methods of the stress test are hidden. Which makes sense; if these were concrete, could banks argue for a month and get the F/T to change the results?

One important thing: current outstanding debt in the US is $11.4 trillion, about half of that mortgages. About half of all mortgage holders are "underwater," and 20% are in some stage of default. Then there are credit cards, auto loans, and student loans, to name a few, which are not included — in any capacity — in these stress tests, yet Visa, MasterCard, and Discover are having higher default rates, as well. So, they're trying to calculate the value of BofA's "assets" while not looking at their entire loan portfolio, much less auto loans, credit lines, and other debt.

Sounds solid.

I'll keep looking for actual details on the stress tests. "Investors" apparently were given a glimpse, but I'm not seeing any reporting on it.

Worth a read

2009-05-10T11:57:00.000-05:00

Betting it all on black in the third quarter

2009-05-10T10:57:00.003-05:00

The Fed and Treasury are banking (pun alert!) everything on the beginnings of recovery in the third quarter of this year.

I don't think it's going to happen. They can move the goalposts (i.e., losing half a million jobs in April is an improvement because the month before it was 600,000! That's, like, an improved rate or something!), but, much like the National Association of Realtors fudging housing numbers so they were ever higher until the second flipping quarter of 2008, at least a full year after prices and sales had fallen precipatately, you can only juggle numbers so many ways before they hit the point of nonsense.

Right now, the F/T (Fed and Treasury. New shorthand! Run with it!) are downsizing their projections for a $34 billion shortfall of Bank of America, $10 billion shortfall for Citi, and $30 billion in shortfalls for the other 17 banks in the top 19. Is that going to work, though?

It is possible that Citi, BofA, and the others are right that losses won't be as big as the F/T originally projected, and that a concurrent uptick in the economy will improve their overall desposits and loan portfolios, easing them out of their stress. The stock market somewhat reflects this optimism.

But, Citi, BofA, and the F/T all completely missed the housing downturn to begin with. Their risk models never, not even in the slightest degree, included the possibility of housing prices dropping. (I'll try to find the links; they're from last year.) Which means, they are completely unprepared for a nationwide downturn of 40% in housing prices. And the places with the highest downturns — California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida — are the places with the highest number of loans, both in number and in loan value. That's not to say that "non-bubble" locations weren't and aren't affected. Dallas and Atlanta are both down about 10%, and that's almost as bad as San Diego being down 70%, at least for these banks.

The vast majority of loans were "non-conforming" in some way. Going totally old-school, a loan was for 80% the value of the home and was amotarized at the same interest rate over 30 years. From 2000 well into 2008, almost all loans were 0% down. (My parents, who bought a house in 2005 for a steady interest rate over 30 years still only paid about 3% down.) What that means is that both the borrowers and the banks don't have any equity in that house. None. That means the loan is only an asset as long as housing prices never drop. As soon as they do (and any sane person can't believe that housing is going to recover any time soon), then the loans are worthless.

And every single one of those loans was leveraged.

So, let's say I make a 100% loan on a house worth $1 million. Then, I bundle that $1 million loan into a CDO and sell it, then package it again and sell it, and so on. (That's how CDO/MBS/credit swaps/etc debts managed to hit $60 trillion a year when outstanding mortgage debt in a single year was only about $5 trillion.) So, along with my $1 million in loan debt, I also have $12 million in debt against that loan. And then housing prices drop 1%. That's it; just 1%. Without any defaults or late payments, my bank suddenly owes $130,000 to make up its shortfall in the books. If I have ten loans, in theory just $10 million in loan assets, that 1% drop in asset prices puts me $1.3 million in the whole, so I need to find some way to get investors in just to stay afloat, not to make money. Make that a 10% drop, as it is in the "safe" non-bubble areas of Texas or Georgia, and that shortfall becomes bigger by 30% than my entire loan portfolio.

And that's without any defaults yet.

Now, make me a homeowner in California. I bought a 2-bedroom bungalow for $1 million in 2005. My neighbors who are selling or who have been foreclosed on now have houses valued at $500,000. Which means my house is now valued at $500,000. I've never missed a payment and I can still afford it. All great. Now, I had no money down, but I have been making payments for four years, about $100,000. Of which, about $30,000 went to my principal. Which means I owe $970,000 on a house I would be lucky to sell for $500,000, and if there are any more option ARMs in my neighborhood or the neighborhood over, that value is going to drop even more. So, what I am, Miss Homeowner, going to do? Going purely by statistics, at some point over the course of that loan, something like 70% of those people are going to walk away. Because it's what makes financial sense, and I have nothing invested in my home.

And that's assuming that it's a homeowner in good standing who can afford their payments, not and in the future. Looking at the everyone currently with an ARM and who has had to receive some kind of "mortgage assistance" program, the default rate is going to be about 100%.

So, fun question, how much of Citi's, BofA's, or WellsFargo's portfolios are tied up in debt in areas where the people are likely to walk away and/or asset prices will remain where they are right now or continue to drop?

Since all of their models assume a recovery by the end of this year, if they don't see a significant recovery in housing prices, they're screwed. That's what they're counting on.

Which means everything depends on business performance in the third quarter of this year. Almost the entire growth in the economy was driven by consumer debt, which was, in turn, built on debt from increasing asset values (the famous House = ATM theory of personal finance). Any "recovery" to 2005 levels has to be based on some kind of increasing asset valuation, even minor increases. Because real wages have stagnant. So, if assets prices increase (we've hit the bottom!) and people start cashing in again, then business goes up, and the economy is saved. If asset prices stay low, then people won't have access to debt, no matter how negative they make interest rates, and then business won't recover.

And they're being all timeline-y and basing it on the third quarter of this year. (They're not being quite that clear, but we're already in the second quarter. There's only half of "later this year" left, and a dismal third quarter will inevitably lead to a bad fourth quarter, since real unemployment, real wages, and real asset prices are what is currently suffering.)

If there is no real increase in employment, no increase in asset values, and no increase in consumer spending, then there is no recovery for banks. And this stress test, which is patently bogus anyway, will be shown as nothing more than a political snow job, and that really doesn't bode well for 2010.

Interesting amount of faith they have in mortgage bailouts, credit counseling, and optimism.

Out of town!

2009-05-10T10:52:00.003-05:00

If any of you were, like, "Hey, where's Deon?" (as I'm sure you were), well, I was working last week. Accomplishments: 0. So, really, I could have been blogging for all my clients would have known. But, theoretically - working.

Then, yesterday I drove down to Oklahoma City (with 45 minutes dead standstill both ways on I-44 for construction: thanks, ODOT!) to see my grandmother for her birthday. For as long as I can remember, Mother's Day weekend is not, in fact, about my mother but about my grandmother's birthday. She's 78 today.

Oh, and if you ever wonder about comments, I usually comment under Ella (my first name and a family name I share with my mom and grandma), and this blog is inexplicably under Deon, my middle name (an unholy merger of my dad's middle name and my mom's first name). So, I guess you could say I'm Ella in public and Deon to my friends. That's just a random thought I had as I was hitting "Publish Post."

[Good Daughter Update]
I'm taking my mom out for lunch and then we'll veg out together and watch movies, so don't think I'm neglecting her. (Really, it's my normal Sunday, only with my mom. Aren't I great?)

HR875 remains in committee

2009-05-03T20:39:00.003-05:00

The Food Safety Modernization Act of 2009 remains in committee, where it's been since Feb. 4.

This is the bill that essentially makes home gardening, farmer's markets, school bake sales, and church potlucks illegal and subject to federal jail time and fines of $1,000,000 per infraction per day. That sounds like an exaggeration, but the crackdown is already beginning in states with similar laws.

The rules include, just to recap, all people who grow anything that can be consumed by humans to register with the Department of Agriculture, to follow rules about tracking planting, fertilizing, and harvesting, to keep records for three years, and to meet health codes. This food does not have to be sold or distributed, so my own personal garden, consumed only by me, is still subject to those rules. Of course, distribution is not a defense! So farmer's markets are also, apparently, whorehouses of unclean food.

It also applies to any food prepared for consumption. So far, I've heard that school bake sales and parties and church events are subject to it. I'd have to re-read the bill, but based on their sloppy language about gardening, this could even apply to home cooking.

Allegedly, this bill is for "to protect the public health by preventing food-borne illness, ensuring the safety of food, improving research on contaminants leading to food-borne illness, and improving security of food from intentional contamination, and for other purposes." It's really the "for other purposes" that interest me.

Those other purposes can only be nefarious. Control the food supply, punish political enemies, enlarge government coffers. Not a lot of good can come from this. Local growers have never had a single health scare; the big growers who already follow these rules and are pushing for this legislation have a couple a year. Their stated purpose - to protect the food supply - is bogus.

So it all comes back to those "other purposes."

I look at my spindly onions, leeks, lettuce, tomatoes, beans, and brussel sprouts, and I weep. Yet rejoice in the fact I am an OUTLAW!

(I do not worry for my squashes. Those things are freakishly huge. They're little sprouts now, but I think they could eat me if I turned my back on them, and I'd put my money on them if it came down to my zucchini and the agricultural agents.)

God approves of fighting Teh Crazy

2009-05-03T20:33:00.002-05:00

Actually, this is a post about Citi and BofA, but I liked that phrase.

Apparently the government's (already widely known to be bogus-ly lenient) stress test reveals that Citi and BofA are each at least $10,000,000,000 under-capitalized at the moment. And they only have six months to raise the money through totally easy measures like selling worthless assets, selling offices and firing people, raising investment capital, or converting debt to common stock and being nationalized. Boy, am I glad they have their crazy-awesome profits to fall back on!

Hooray, economy!

Oh, this is my way of fighting Teh Crazy. Welcome to the new economy, comrades!

An optimistic post

2009-05-01T20:33:00.002-05:00

Last week, Obstreperous Infidel (yes, that's his real name!) told me at ProteinWisdom that he "wanted to say thank you for a comment you made to me the other day. I had just despaired a little (something about embracing nihilism as a Christian) and you said something to me that set my mind at ease."

I don't remember the exact context, but he had said something about being depressed about the world, and that that worried him about his own faith. And then I said something along the lines of Jesus saying that he overcame the world, and that was because the world needed overcome, not because it was all super-awesome.

It was a scintillating conversation and I'm sure you're all sad you missed it.

Often on my blog, I shout about the worst parts of our society. Well, as often as I post. There is a lot wrong, and I really don't think this country, in five years will be recognizable to what it was five years ago, much less thirty years ago. I think major companies are heading toward a collapse and that the genius of our government is that they are going to pay trillions of dollars (into the pockets of cronies and former coworkers) before letting them die in bankruptcy and insolvency. I am planning on buying land, chickens, gold, and fruit trees for a reason.

But that's really not everything.

What I was trying to tell Obstreperous Infidel, and what I tell myself daily, is that this really isn't everything. I have saved a pile of coin; I love my family; I have fun, loyal, and happy; I have sweet-natured dogs who sit on my feet; I have a good career and a good life. If I lost it all, I would be very sad, probably for a very long time. I would probably be angry for even longer.

But that's not everything.

Jesus said repeatedly, variations of "Whoever loves his life will lose it, and whoever loses his life, for my sake, will gain it." "What does it matter to a man to gain the whole world if he loses his soul?" "Who of you by worrying can add a single hour to your life?" (All quotes from the official Deon translation.) We find nuggets like "strangers in a strange land" and a New Jerusalem.

The point isn't that this life isn't important, isn't terribly and terrifically important. The point is that it isn't all there is.

Everything I have now - home, work, family, friends, comfort, community - can be lost. God has something in its place. God brings us tomorrow, something pointed out much more poetically in Psalms, about morning and waterfalls and wind passing over new grass and all kinds of great images.

Lamentations is a book written by the prophet Jeremiah. For decades Jeremiah - a man cut off from his family, forbidden to marry, and alternately honored and arrested by kings - had been warning Judah that if they didn't repent, they were going to be punished. After the warnings, Judah was sacked and destroyed by the Babylonians. The Temple was plundered and burned, thousands of people were killed and the rest were dragged off to captivity. As he was sitting at the top of a hill as he was leaving, watching the smoke and ash and fumes of Jerusalem, listening to quiet weeping of other captives, the jeers and laughter and normalcy of the invading army, he wrote a long poem, the Lamentations.

He hath led me, and brought me into darkness, but not into light.

Surely against me is he turned; he turneth his hand against me all the day.

My flesh and my skin hath he made old; he hath broken my bones.

He hath builded against me, and compassed me with gall and travail.

He hath set me in dark places, as they that be dead of old.

He hath hedged me about, that I cannot get out: he hath made my chain heavy.

Also when I cry and shout, he shutteth out my prayer.

And yet, just a few verses later, Jeremiah wrote:

This I recall to my mind, therefore have I hope.

It is of the LORD's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions fail not.

They are new every morning: great is thy faithfulness.

The LORD is my portion, saith my soul; therefore will I hope in him.

The LORD is good unto them that wait for him, to the soul that seeketh him.

It is good that a man should both hope and quietly wait for the salvation of the LORD.

That's all there is. That's everything.

God really told people only three things:

Love your neighbor.

Don't be afraid.

Be of good cheer.

Over and over again, those three things - love, don't be afraid, be of good cheer.

That's all there is.

That's actually why, ultimately, things don't scare me. They upset me, they sadden me, they anger me. But Paul wrote in one of his Epistles of "our light and transient burdens" in the light of all that is good.

No matter how much I complain about Citi and Wall Street, Obama and Communism, total societal collapse, blah blah blah, that's not all there is. God is bigger. Life is bigger. There is always hope adn mercy, and every single day is new.

So, when I start complaining about the hateful Socialist minions ruining my zombie country, just remember that this land isn't really our home. It's a beautiful thing that God has given us to enjoy. But it's not everything.

I felt like saying that.

Song

2009-05-01T20:27:00.002-05:00

I like the public TV broadcasts from Rogers State University. RSU-TV is the young, upstart public station, in direct competition to the behemoth juggernaut that is OETA-PBS. On Saturdays, they show the Jeremy Brett Sherlock Holmes series, followed by a more recent British dramedy cop show called New Tricks. With the 8-minute gap left for commercials, RSU plays odd little clips, like a short documentary on refurbishing the old movie theater in Miami, Oklahoma. (Pronounced my-AM-uh.)

They also play short interviews and songs from an indie label in God-knows-where called Sun Studios. One of their jam sessions, daddio, involved London-based David Ford.

Who gives us our song today, "Requiem."

well the world’s getting heavy and it sticks to my feet
well practiced in losing and brave in defeat
....
I’ll take a patch of new mexico and I will call it mine
And I’ll swear never to return to the scene of the crime

Well the mob’s getting angry and the torches alight
Because they’re putting up taxes by a penny tonight
And you can never taste freedom boys if you run from a fight
And when the heavens are falling take a step to the right

So we smoke ourselves skinny and we drink ourselves blind
Self-discovery knocks but there is nothing to find
And if you’re looking for victims would you keep me in mind
Let us be kissed on the cheek, let us be f***ed from behind

There’s no need to tread carefully there’s no need to fear
Just talk in obscure non-specifics and try to look all sincere
Every administration blames the one from last year
So when consequence calls there’ll be nobody here

My favorite moment of the week

2009-05-01T20:22:00.003-05:00

Not the Souter retirement or Specter's flip, although the coincidental timing is interesting to me. (Yes, I think Souter is a liberal, and Obama as a member of the Harvard/Columbia/Ivy nexis is One of His Kind and therefore trustworthy to find a suitable replacement. And with Specter greasing the wheels to a smooth-60 vote, the time was golden. They probably even colluded.) And it wasn't Obama threatening to terrorize Chrysler investors with his personal DC-based media like they're Sarah Palin. And it wasn't Biden flipping out about riding in buses, planes, taxis, escalators, elevators, and sidewalks because of Teh Great Flu.

It was definitely Obama chasing down lower Manhattan in Air Force One like Mothra. That's just good times, right there.

Great Deon Purchase of 2009

2009-04-30T18:32:00.002-05:00

h/t slowjack

I may start a new job in June. Which, having been an independent contractor for 5 years is a surprisingly hard decision to make. But a) I get to work remotely still (although it does still require me to move states, in a touch of irony), b) it's for my current largest client, whom I've worked with for 3 years already, and c) I get to keep my other clients.

So, really, my life doesn't change at all. Except I don't have to worry about contract renewals once a year.

Good times.

I just can't quit you

2009-04-28T22:53:00.002-05:00

How dumb is Megan McCain?

Thank you, I am am STILL A BELIEVER IN THIS PARTY! I have faith we can bring this back, whose with me?!? were in this 2gether!

"Whose" should be "who's."

"Were" should be "we're."

"2gether" isn't a word, and I refuse to acknowledge it.

Her Ivy League is showing.

And yet I can't look away.

She has more twitter about Arlen Specter, who is alternately selfish and, apaprently, an innocent run out of a meany-mean-mean GOP that went all mean conservative on its big tent. Although I may be giving her too much credit for thinking through her twits. I really don't think she does.

A reminder of why I quit reading National Review

2009-04-28T11:11:00.003-05:00

If Barack Obama’s presidency were to end on Day 101, it would be a smash success. He’s popular; the nation’s mood is lifting; he’s adored abroad; and he’s already put his stamp on economic policy.

/me smashes her head against the desk.

There are many thing wrong with that statement. First, BO's popularity is right around 50%. Lower than any President since Johnson at this point in his Presidency. Less-dishonest pollsters like Rasmussen release a poll that shows his popularity slipping and concern for his economic policies (about 75% negative) growing, and then CBS/NYT/Gallup (not the same as the unaffiliated Gallup) do a quick follow up to say everything is hunky-dory. This has happened, like, 6 times in a row.

Adored abroad — I'm not even touching. I must have missed the part where that adoration spilled over into either respect or action. He's a favorite pet or somewhat spoiled child. He is, in fact, an international token, but no one takes him seriously. (Want me to run down the list? Starting with Gordon Brown through Putin, Sarkozy, and Merkel to Chavez and Ortega. Even the B- and C-listers think he's a lightweight.)

As for the nation's mood lifting and the "stamp" of his economic plan. That only makes his administration a success because the bills aren't due. Much like when Homer Simpson was elected sanitation commissioner. However, by the third quarter of this year, the economy is going to be worse off than it was in January, in real terms, and the only "mood lifting" is a brief hiatus. The stock market is up from early March, but not much. GM, Citi, BofA, and Chrysler (and, apparently, every single top bank in the US, representing 50% of all deposits and something like 50% of mortgages) are teetering on the brink of collapse. Near-term, possibly this year collapse. Unemployment is still rising, asset values are still dropping, as are real incomes and consumer sales.

This is like the middle of the horror movie, when the first wave of maulings and attacks are over, and people start breathing more normally and checking their wounds and saying, "what happened? is it over yet? is everyone okay?"

But to National Review, that's 100 days of success.

When pigs fly

2009-04-26T14:56:00.002-05:00

Is anyone else amused by the fact that for three years (or more) everyone from CNN to Glenn Reynolds was preaching a pathological fear of avian flu? Be prepared! Lack of evidence of mutation to humans is not a lack of deadliness to humans! FEAR THE AVIAN!

When it was really the swine flu what was gearing up for a pandeimic! Ha ha. Nature laughs.

Sometimes Nature doesn't make really funny jokes. More cruel irony.

But I thought Citi had a profit!

2009-04-24T10:07:00.006-05:00

Oh, the heady days of last month, when Citi was rolling in dough.

Today? It's failing its stress test and Geithner and Obama are threatening a hostile government ouster of CEO Vikram Pandit.

The same stress test that they and their awesome profits were going to pass with flying colors six weeks ago.

Allow me evil laughter.

Bwahahahahahahaha!

Apparently — and this is shocking, I know — Citi has billions invested in worthless assets, a high number of defaults, and low revenue. And that may affect their profitability.

It's hard to believe.

Here's the thing. The "strong capital position" that Citi had was all TARP money. They got $40 billion in TARP cash, plus nearly $400 billion in government backing for bad assets. Yet, that's not enough to cover their bad debts. (BofA, with a $2 billion announced profit and something like $80 billion in TARP funds is in a similar boat.) Pandit claimed they were profitable without ever bothering to give what their actual profits were. He said what their revenue ($19 billion), but that's slightly lower than their money-losing revenue of $20 billion for each quarter from Sept. 2007 to Dec. 2008.

This is like James Taggart claiming that the Railroad Unification Board was making Taggart Transcontinental profitable. Ultimately, a paper shuffle is just a paper shuffle.

But that little lie (a Kool-Aid flavor not everyone drank) rallied the market 400 points and led a lot of idiots to call the bottom of the market.

I initially felt pity and concern for people. Then, in early 2008, I felt frustration. Now? Outright malevolence. Wall Street, Washington, and a disturbing number of regular people are showing a "toxic" mix of stupidity, greed, blindness, and groupthink about the financial situation. When I thought they were duped or naive, I felt pity. Now, they're just deluding themselves on purpose.

The third quarter of this year (when the recovery begins! according to Geithner) is going to be a lot of fun.

[UPDATE]
Also from the article on Pandit possibly getting the boot like Wagoner at GM:

Results of the tests are expected to be released May 4.

Geithner and other regulators have said that they would boot CEOs if the government had to rescue them further.

Replacing Pandit might be the pound of flesh some shareholders want, but it's possible such a move would do little to help the firm. Indeed, sources said possible successors like Kelly are loyal to Pandit, and others like Gary Crittenden, the new CEO of Citi Holdings, may not be willing to take on the role.

First off, May 4 is a Sunday. Why the h*ll would they release insanely important market data like that on a Sunday? It may impact the Monday open, true, and document dumps normally come on a Friday afternoon, but release Sunday saves Geithner, Summers, Bernanke, or Obama from having to make the rounds of Sunday talk shows explaining how they screwed this up.

The only reason to out Pandit is as a power play. First, it lets them take over the bank (hey, anyone else notice there's no replacement CEO at GM? It's all Treasury now, baby!) and stack the board and management positions with government apparatchiks and appointees. Soft nationalization, if you will. Second, it's a threat to other CEOs. "Sure is a nice company you've got there. Shame if anything were to happen to it." Two CEOs ousted and companies taken over by the President and the Secretary of the Treasury in blatantly illegal actions with nary a peep from Congress or the courts. It's not exactly a shock why no one would be willing to step up to be a stooge for these guys.

Bush started this with the bailouts, and this was the only end.

People pick at nits and bark about the semantics of "fascism" and "socialism" and "communism" and the newly-minted "corporatism." But fasicsm, socialism, and communism are all basically the same thing. The only differences are in methods, not results, actions, or intents. Because the government is focusing (first) on taking over corporations and industries instead of personaly property, I'm leaning toward fascism, myself. But all roads lead to Rome — or, in this case, all properties belong to the state. It's just a matter of where they're collecting first.

Site I like is down!

2009-04-21T17:38:00.002-05:00

WikiWax. It's related to SurfWax, a search site I use a lot. (It's my alternative for my one-person crusade against Google, which I am sure Google notices and fears.)

Anyway, I dislike Wikipedia's search results, and WikiWax does a "look ahead" which is way more friendly, at least to me.

But it's down at the moment, so my world is a little darker. Oh, the humanity!

Pet peeve

2009-04-21T11:10:00.002-05:00

I was originally going to talk about this story about a photo of Obama shirtless on the cover of a DC maagazine along the lines of how in love with himself and juvenile Obama (and all of his acolytes) are.

But Jake Tapper stepped on one of my pet peeves.

But this time, White House aides -- who in the past have been appalled at the media's fascination with Mr. Obama shirtless -- today seemed nonplussed, one of them remarking that the President was in great shape.

Nonplussed means to be perplexed, confused, disoriented, or taken aback. It does not mean to handle with aplomb or to be unfazed.

This is a really commonly misused word. I detest it but expect in in the $3 romance novels I get from KMart when some hack is trying to come off smart. I just lose respect for the layers of "fact checking" and "professional editing," not to mention crappy "Ivy League degrees," when it's misused by a "professional" writer.

So, Mr Smartest Guy in the Room, get this straight:

Possessives have apostrophes (Obama's). Plurals do not (Obamas). Learn the difference.

"All right" is two words. Not "alright," not from now until hell freezes over.

"A lot" is two words, unless you're talking about an assigned portion, in which case it has two L's. See above.

"Yea" is pronounced "yay." "Yeah" is pronounced "yeh-ah." The spellings are not interchangeable.

Your = something you possessed. You're = something you are.

Nonplussed means perplexed. If you want to mean someone isn't puzzled by something, say "unflappable" or "unpertrubed" or "poised" or even "confident" or "dismissive" or "understanding." Lots of words that can be properly used, depending on the context.

If you want more grammar lessons, I can be available, Jake Tapper.

And, for good measure, Megan McCain. God, for someone allegedly educated at Columbia, that is one of the dumbest chicks I've ever seen.

0 for 2

2009-04-19T17:50:00.005-05:00

No consensus reached at Americas summit.

That's two in a month, first the G20 and now this. Looks like "smart diplomacy" isn't much a replacement for old-fashioned leadership.

[UPDATE]
It looks like ABC removed the story. That's ... interesting. No updates (near as I can tell), no redirect. Removed it.

Memory hole!

Anyway, you can find the cached version, I think, here.

Actually, I can't imagine why the removed the story. It's really brief and there's nothing damaging in there that I can tell. Whatevs.

Song of the moment

2009-04-17T11:33:00.002-05:00

In my never ending quest to support awesome people, the song that I just finished listening to is "Fire in the Valley" by Farmer Not So John.

Freedom's got nothing to it.
It's not what you lose,
It's how much you choose not to have it.

That pretty well sums up why I went to the Tea Party over lunch on Wednesday. I despise the Republican party almsot as much as I do the Democrats, and any even with John "Eye Care/Bailout" Sullivan is a lesson in GOP boosterism and the death of a third party movement.

But I'm not going to be told by President O that I shouldn't go, and I'm not going to listen to handwringers like Rick Moran and David Frum who fret about the unpleasantness of it all.

Outlaw.

The seasons are changing fast.
These hard times will never last.
(I'm) trying to get back on the road.

"Travelin' Fool" by Farmer Not So John. Also a good song.

Video killed the radio star

2009-04-17T11:14:00.004-05:00

The maintainers of the filesharing site Pirate Bay have been sentenced to serve time in prison by a UK court.

I noticed the link on Drudge, naturally, but I noticed something else. I stream songs a lot from a site called mp3raid. Normally, when they have search results, they list the site that you're streaming from. As of this morning, that's apparently "N/A."

N/A is the best-est place for music ever, apparently.

I am a huge proponent of intellectual property, and despite a long and awesome history with open source projects (both as a worker-bee and as a consumer), I really like and respect closed-source companies like Microsoft (and Corel and Copernic and Sun and others). I support long-term patents and copyrights.

Thing is, the music industry, more than almost any other, screws over the productive people. As in, the musicians, singers, writers, studio artists, and producers. People who can actuall create. As far as I'm concerned, stick it to MCA and Sony and Capital. They're hucksters, extortionists, and pimps. The only thing they can possible create are pre-packaged, pre-formed, and heavily edited pop-tarts like Jessica Simpson and Britney Spears. Real musicians with real talent are usually so soul-tired and punchdrunk after the creative process and rounds of playing in dive bars and county fairs for the cost of food (and gas, if they're lucky) that they sign over their most valuable efforts for a few thousand dollars, some promotional materials, and the hope that they can generate enough crowds that they can finally make a living wage. I know life isn't fair, but life in the music business is especially unfair.

I'm with the pirates on this one. I'm going to N/A!

Lessons in Washington-ese

2009-04-16T19:16:00.003-05:00

What does being pro-life or opposing (ILLEGAL) immigration have to do with racial or religious hatred? Glad you asked!

Right-wing extremism was defined as hate-motivated groups and movements, such as hatred of certain religions, racial or ethnic groups. It went on to say, "It may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a single issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration."

"If there's one part of that report I would rewrite, in the word-smithing, Washington-ese that goes on after the fact, it would be that footnote," Napolitano said Thursday on Fox News.

At least now we know what she really means, though.

Scenes from Atlas Shrugged

2009-04-13T23:31:00.001-05:00

This is a scene from Reardon's anniversary party, on page 127 of my Signet Classic edition.

Embrace the most awesome of lame things.

On giving up Dr Pepper for Lent

2009-04-13T22:39:00.003-05:00

[ed. note: This was originally part of the Easter post. I broke it up when Jack — aka Anonymous — pointed out it meandered too much to make sense.

Also, you should all read reason's comments on the previous Easter post, because he said what I was trying to say here much more elegantly. Lent, for me, wasn't about the "virtue" of giving something up. It wasn't a step to salvation. It was a way of very simply highlighting my physical life, my physical needs and impulses, and realizing the relationship that my temporal and fleeting and even beautiful current life has to my eternal life with and through God. I had an impulse to do an act and I consciously restrained myself from doing it and consciously reminded myself of the reason why. reason the commenter rightly calls it "an adventure." It is a good adventure, I think.]

I gave up Dr. Pepper for Lent, and that is my primary source of caffeine. I drink a lot of tea, but it's almost all decaf. Then I had a heinous busy period at work, and I still couldn't drink my liquid comfort, Dr Pepper. That's sacrifice!

Since I told any and all I was off caffeine, I wasn't doing it for the extra credit with God. And I'm not Catholic or mainline Protestant, so it's not a tenant of any church I've attended. I just did it.

I've thought about sacrifice. I didn't spend my previous Dr Pepper time in prayer or try to be spiritual about it. I was really trying to see - what's the point of fasting? It can't be Brownie points, because I doubt that seriously impressed God. And there's nothing un-spiritual about Dr Pepper or meat or most of what people give up for Lent. So why?

I think it's absence. Something was missing, by choice, in my life. There was a tree of the knowledge of good and evil, and I could see it and had to choose not to eat. That's overstating. Really, it was a reminder: this is not something I can do right now, and the reason is aribtrary, but it is because I promised God. It is a small change, an impermanent change, a capricious change. And that was really the point. Every day I had a choice, and every day I made that choice and that was that.

It made my relationship obvious. I mean, I had to think about my obedience to God. Normally, I can go through the motions. I am saved, I believe, and it gets shoved to the back of my head and real life stays upfront. For seven weeks, though, a very minor, silly little decision (what would you like to drink with that, miss?) made it obvious to me that my life is not, entirely, my own.

It also, ironically enough, forced attention on the physical. Habits. In some ways, fasting Dr Pepper took a physical act (drinking) and made it a spiritual act, the physical and spiritual together.

So many things seem arbitrary to me. Church attedance for one. I've just never gotten into it. I went because I was forced to go until I went to college, but I never saw a good reason why. Lent is making me think about this. Not rethink, because I never had any conclusions. Just think: what does obedience mean? Submission? What does it mean to obey something pointless just because it was asked? Can I live with an absence in my life, a choice that I hand over? Can a meaningless physical act still become a spiritual act separated from physical benefit?

Remember that God loves you

2009-04-12T18:18:00.005-05:00

This is Easter. I'm not usually into holiday posts, and I didn't go to church today. Or, ahem, too many Sundays in the past.

It's not because I don't believe in God. I do. And not in the silly "I'm spiritual, just not religious" way. I am a scary fundamentalist Christian. I actually believe that the Bible is the literal word of God, that Jesus was a real person who really died and really rose from the dead. For my sins. And I believe in sin and redemption. (I'm even a creationist! And, yes, I believe in the rapture of the saints, to put it quaintly.)

The point of today (and not the point of this meandering post) is that God loves you. I am going to repeat that. "For God so loved the world, that He gave his only begotten Son. That whosoever believeth on Him shall not perish, but have everlasting life."

[UPDATE]
My friend Jack pointed out that this post made no sense. So I'm breaking it up into two posts. This is the Easter post.

Living in Margaritaville

2009-04-12T11:57:00.004-05:00

I am going to start buying from Sur la Table. Those guys are awesome.

As we all know, the Sur la Tahbluh "Margaritaville" featured prominently in the South Park episode, "Margaritaville." (Which I do not recommend watching today, Easter, or possibly any other day because I think it may be blasphemous.)

So what does Sur la Table do?

Margaritaville® Frozen Concoction™ Maker 2000

Our newest model features 550 watts of shaving and blending power, twice the ice capacity, and now you can select from four automatic pre-programmed drinks: margarita, mudslide, daiquiri and smoothie. Enjoy slushy frozen drinks in four simple steps: fill reservoir with ice, add ingredients to pitcher, select number of desired drinks (up to 36 ounces total) and start the automatic Shave-N-Blend™ cycle, then remove pitcher and pour.

As featured on the March 26, 2009 episode of South Park. Watch the entire episode featuring Sur La Table here.

Embrace the awesome.

Prediction

2009-04-09T15:06:00.002-05:00

I don't want bad things. But this is like downing Peptobismol when you have the stomach flu. Purging the system actually helps you heal faster; tamping it down keeps you sick longer. This is a very bad situation. The longer these dead limbs stay attached to the economy, the longer we're going to be sick, the worse it is going to get, and the harsher the cure is going to be.

I still predict a low DOW somewhere around 2500 to 3000, and major institutions (BofA and Citi, at least) are going to go under, as well as some major retailers and possibly manufacturers (Chrysler, almost definitely). Why? Because that's how deep the cuts have to do to cut out the deadweight. Not everyone deserves this, but life isn't fair. Kinda sucks, but what are you going to do — lie about it? Been there, done that. My jeans are not tight because I accidentally stuck them in the dryer. The truth is what it is, in little and big things, regardless of what we tell ourselves.

Freefall ends

2009-04-09T14:59:00.004-05:00

I'm not buying, because there's no why. TARP has made it's happy effects known for six months now, six months where the DOW is still down 35% from seven months ago. As in TARP didn't work, which is why multiple TARP follow-ups are still floating. AIG has had three bailouts, Wells Fargo (heavily exposed in Western mortgages, as in 50% off their value mortgages, mortgages facing a default rate of somewhere around 80%) announces a proposed profit of $3billion, after being able to lie about its asset valuations (changes in mark to market rules).

Bollocks, all of it.

Nothing has changed. The massive deficits from Obama's budget haven't hit yet. The massive inflation from Bush-Obama Fed pumping and bailouts ($15 trillion or, as I like to call it, the entier GDP), has barely hit. Tax increases on businesses and the middle class haven't hit yet. The stimulus bill (as in, payment due) hasn't hit yet. Energy price spikes are still coming down the pike.

Nothing they have proposed, aside from TARP, has hit yet. So why is the freefall over? Any Keynesian benefits can't have been reaped yet. None of the Austrian/Galt fallout could have hit yet.

In other words: nothing has happened yet.

So, why has the freefall ended, according to Larry Summers?

"There has been a substantial anecdotal flow over the last six to eight weeks of things that felt a little bit better," Summers told the Economic Club of Washington. "The sense of a ball falling off a table, which is what the economy has felt like since the middle of last fall ... we can be reasonably confident that that is going to end within the next few months and we will no longer have that sense of a free-fall."

Well, at least they have a reason. A really good reason, too.

Hooray, economy!

More thoughts on Atlas Shrugged

2009-04-05T16:40:00.007-05:00

In case it didn't come across before (which, on re-reading, it didn't), I'm enjoying Atlas Shrugged. There are basically three ways I'm reading this book:

As a philosophical statement. John Galt, freedom, bailouts. Duh. I have no doubt, based on what I know of Ayn Rand and the excerpts and quotes I've read, that I will very much agree with the premise of the book. Freedom! Competition! Classical liberalism! That's good stuff.

As an aside, it's an interesting insight into Ayn Rand's idealized picture of men and women, which doesn't match mine, but is intriguing nonetheless.

As a simple story. My favorite writer is G.K. Chesterton, but my close-running favorites are a hodge-podge of writers from the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s: Flannery O'Connor, Dorothy Sayers, Agatha Christie, Grace Livingston Hill (romance writer, long story), Carolyn Keene (Nancy Drew!), Franklin Dixon (Hardy Boys!), William Faulkner, and, less good but still fun, James Cain, Dashiell Hammett, Raymond Chandler. Along with being stylistically sparse and tight as a writer — and very effectively delivering her story — Rand really reflects the styles and modes of that era. So I'm a happy camper.

As literature to analyze. Although I am no Jeff Goldstein, I did major in English, and I loved the criticism/analysis angle. Not the silly race-class-sex criticism (Marxism by a different name and a group of people who hate reading). I mean the narratology style: what's the pattern of the story, what's the intent of the writer, what's the meaning of the metaphors. Roland Barthes had a system of criticism called S/Z analysis which, in part, analyzed actions in a short piece of work. What's the last action or movement verb? Where does that position the story and/or the character? I even had a film class, and the statement that made the biggest impact was "Nothing on the screen got there by accident." That's what made me notice that despite the fact that the book is set in a major city, in a major company, there's almost no background noise, there's no wasted movement. It's a very still book so far, and that's interesting.

At one point, Dagny comes home from work, and there is not a single word of dialog for four or five pages. She comes down from work, wanders the streets without meeting another person except one inebriated couple who don't talk, takes a taxi home, and goes into her empty apartment. She then sits down and plays a record. It goes through newspaper reviews of Halley's early work, then, two pages later, she is still sitting there listening and, after another paragraph, picks up a newspaper. Very quiet, self-contained, isolated. Routinely, Rand describes Dagny or her surroundings as "alone" or "empty" or "still" or "quiet."

That doesn't really mean anything; I just noticed that the mood of the book was very muted, hushed, maybe expectant. And then I noticed that the dialog was limited, that the misen scene was empty, like empty streets bordered by tall skyscrapers, and it was fostering that mood, at least for me. I thought that was fascinating.

I'm really bad at criticism, or at least out of practice. But it's fun to look at what little tidbits, what turn of phrase, helped create the overall mood.

The Stuff Post

2009-04-05T12:25:00.005-05:00

I want to plug some stuff.

I really like Copernic. I know, I know, they're small, they're teetering on the edge, and they're Canadian. But I love Copernic Agent, which searches a bunch of search engines simultaneously. It saves searches! And saves which links I've clicked on! That is beyond invaluable for my research for white papers, articles, and press releases. (And it doesn't search Google, though it hits all of the other major search engines, which is awesome because I despise Google. Ask me my opinion on dirty Communist b*stards. Seriously. Ask.) They also have a Summarizer, which, literally, summarizes web pages, documents, and PDFs, and prints a nice handy-dandy report. And you can set the length - 25%, 50%, 10%, whatever, of the original. Really great for research, again. Lastly, I use their backup service. Oh, and less frequently, Copernic Tracker (tracks web page changes) and Desktop Search (my brother uses this daily and swears by it, may even name his first born after it).

I also like Corel WordPerfect and any of their design suites, a billion times more than Adobe anything. They're documentation is much better, their customer support is stellar (and Adobe is terrible beyond non-profane words), and their UI is intuitive and easy to pick up.

This ends your Canadian software stuff update.

Mac v PC

2009-04-05T12:24:00.002-05:00

And Linux makes an appearance in the comments!

UPDATE
Thread winner:

When computing products became the signifier of a lifestyle, I slipped back the safety catch on my pistol.

Posted by: Fritz at April 05, 2009 12:31 PM

Reading "Atlas Shrugged"

2009-04-05T11:38:00.008-05:00

When I read 1984 last month, the book overall wasn't that effective. I'm sure in 1948, it was a slap in the face, an awful dystopian future with only a few whispers of fact. In 2009, not so much. It was plodding drudgery, not because it's a bad book, but because it's all so familiar and normal. It was depressing, because the only question left at the end was "how did we come to this?" Honestly, The Book that Winston Smith reads in the middle, all about Emmanuel Goldstein's break-down of the Party philosophy and history? I call it Protein Wisdom.

I've started Atlas Shrugged. I've never read Ayn Rand before, though I'm obviously familiar with her philosophy. And apparently she was the Ann Coulter of 1955 because she had a falling out with Whittaker Chambers and William F. Buckley and got kicked off National Review, much as Ann Coulter (or "she who will not be named") did with Rich Lowery and Jonah Goldberg. I also saw the Gary Cooper/Patricia Neal version of The Fountainhead. I really disliked that movie: the premise, the characters, the actors. I am really not a Gary Cooper or Patricia Neal fan; they are emotionally flat, vaguely arrogant, stiff-faced, and unlikeable performers. Seriously, those people are incapable of smiling. Gary Cooper can kind of pucker his lips, and Patricia Neal smirks. Much like their characters in the movie. Since Ayn Rand chose them both herself, I've always had a slight bias against her.

In reading Atlas Shrugged, my opinion has changed slightly. Ayn Rand was a fanatic. Politically and in some ways structurally, I think she was right. Freedom means a lot of things, and the beauty and sustainability in any free society is the freedom to succeed - to make money, to make choices, to act. But I think she has a terrible reading on people. That makes Atlas Shrugged interesting in an atmospheric sense. These are completely unreal people. Dagny Taggert, Francisco d'Aconia, John Galt. They don't exist. They are idealized and motorized, like statues. In fact, much like the Venus de Milo. There's a form of humanity there, but it's incomplete and broken. Ayn Rand doesn't seem aware of how broken these people are. The only real people are (at a hundred pages in; I've got lots to go) are Eddie Willers and Jim Taggert (unfortunately) and probably Dan Conway of the Phoenix Durango.

The brokenness of these people (assuming it's not resolved) also doesn't seem to matter to the story being told. It's backstory, which we can accept and move on from without asking why.

Dagny Taggert's and Francisco d'Aconia's very unreality give the story a dreamlike quality. Probably because they're walking metaphors for Individualism. I think that actually works for this story. Dreams have heightened colors, mysteriously shared knowledge, and an unquestioning acceptance of events. It's an interesting dream.

One interesting thing is how quiet this book is. Almost everything takes place in quiet, at night. Cafeterias are empty, apartments are empty, restaurants are secluded. People stare out windows or walk down empty streets. There is very little sound to the book. There's no shoe leather slapping the pavement, no bustle in the streets, no traffic, no dishes or typewriters clattering. The first chapter has a rhythm of the train and there are constant mentions of Halley's music, but those really underscore how quiet everything else is. There's nothing but isolation.

Coming soon

2009-04-05T11:32:00.002-05:00

There's some local stuff I'd like to complain about. The Republican Party in Oklahoma is trying to move from primaries to caucuses and for a lot of retarded reasons. Not a fan of that plan. Which really doesn't apply to me, since I am switching from R to I anyway. Which, since Oklahoma doesn't really do third parties and they have closed primaries, means I'm basically cutting myself off from any voice in the democratic process. Which, ultimately, is a billion times more honest and less self-delusional than thinking that participating in the democratic process means anything, anyway. (Unless you really believe that my vote for Duncan Hunter or the 11% who voted for Ron Paul totally had a place in the GOP! Big tent, all welcome!)

And the city of Tulsa is running a deficit. There's some confusion in the state government is running a deficit. They said they were facing a $1 billion shortfall this year, but suddenly they're not. Have I mentioned how much I trust a) government numbers and b) reporting in general?

So, I'll get to all that soon. Totally. I mean that.

Dude, you are not my nemesis

2009-04-05T11:26:00.003-05:00

Friday's song was "Not Dark Yet," by Bob Dylan. I will undoubtedly be returning to more Bill Mallonee in the next few weeks. Along with being one of my favorites, his "Losing Battle" and "It's Not Bothering Me" are on constant loop when I do my taxes. Four times a year, eight hours solid.

Today? I'm listening to "Dr Horrible's Singalong Blog."

...humankind has gone insane
To the point where I don’t know
If I’ll upset the status quo
If I throw poison in the water main

And...

Society is slipping
Everything’s slipping away

So timely.

It's not about making money. It's about taking money. Destroying the status quo. Because the status is not quo.

Hello to new friends!

2009-04-05T11:25:00.001-05:00

We have two new commenting friends! I would like to welcome BeachBumBill and Anonymous! Hi, guys! We also have our old returning friend, reason, who drops by occasionally. So that's cool.

This one's for Jack

2009-04-03T18:30:00.003-05:00

I am the electronic version of the crazy guy on a street corner.

You know, the one with a sign that says, "The End Is Near!" Or, when I was in Seattle, the college age hippies who handed out pamphlets about third parties and global warming.

Whatever. The point is, I type, though no one is listening to me, either. Because, like, no one knows about this place.

It feels good.

I think John Scalzi and I are twins separated at birth

2009-04-02T13:15:00.003-05:00

At least in regards to the aversion to debt, mild history of "under monetization," emphasis on saving, middle class interests, compulsive book buying, and sentimental pack-rat-ness. Particularly the tendency to be a pack rat because of sentimental associations with the object. (I have Bic pens and paper clips and a stapler from my first job out of college. Why? I don't know. Only because it was an awesome job and I loved it.)

In case there's any question

2009-04-02T11:06:00.003-05:00

I'm saying that the AP is lying and that whatever is causing the stock markets to rise is a very convenient fiction that will be quietly rewritten sometime next month.

I think this AOL Money story that credits the bump to new rules that allow banks to lie about the value of their crappy loans is much more accurate. Lying banks = immediate solvency.

Hooray, economy!

How the media spins

2009-04-02T10:57:00.002-05:00

Okay, stocks are freakishly and stupidly up today, in part, because of Such Awesome Car Sales in March. Up 25% from February?

So where were those February sales? Down 40% year over year. Hmm. And the Auto Observer wrote... "March Car Sales Look a Lot Like February Car Sales."

Intriguing.

According to that article, sales in 2009 will probably be half of what they were in 2007. Sales are being buoyed by used car sales, apparently. So, sales aren't quite as dismal as October 2008 (what they claim was the low), but they just aren't selling new.

That article said, "Generally the industry gets about a 20 percent boost from February to March, but month-over-month sales are up less than 13 percent."

In fact, every story I found on a Yahoo search predicted March car sales to increase 13%-18%. I can't find whatever story they're referencing for that 25% number, and the AP didn't bother to attribute it anywhere. So, five days ago, the March bounce was half the usual, but today it's 20% higher! Hooray, economy!

Oh, and loan deliquencies are up and jobless claims are up about 740,000. No worries, though. Hooray, economy!

Fully automatic weapons, on sale now!

2009-04-01T11:39:00.003-05:00

Top Glock is selling them, Glock 18 handgun for $600, HK G36K rifle for about $1300, and a Colt M4 for only $1000.

Worth every auto-firing penny.

Yes, this is a brilliant April Fool's Day joke by the company. Had me going for a moment — and, considering there was nothing but busy signal for 20 minutes when my brother tried to order one, we aren't the only ones. Hats off, dudes.

Song of the day

2009-03-31T17:06:00.004-05:00

"Losing Battle" by Bill Mallonee.

a little courageous moment
it's a plot of land and you could have owned it
where everything awaits the light of day

you can't outrun the black clouds
when you've allowed more than is allowed
the spirit leaves before the death rattle
losing battle

Sing it.

The four-year itch

2009-03-31T12:17:00.004-05:00

I don't get economic reporting. I flat out don't. These people are either such blatant liars that they don't care about being consistent or they're stupid. Or both.

From Bloomberg:

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 19 percent in January from a year earlier, the fastest drop on record, as demand plummeted and foreclosures rose.

Get that? a) Demand dropped. b) Foreclosures (i.e., stock) rose. Therefore, prices dropped almost 20%.

A glut of unsold properties may keep prices low....

Backlog of unsold properties.

Still, sales of new and previously owned homes rose in February, indicating the housing slump, now in its fourth year, may ease ...

Okay, there is so much screwed up in that sentence. First of all, it's not easing. That would be the "dropping prices" and "glut of unsold homes" and "demand plummeting." Those are what I call "tells."

Second, they keep claiming that sales went up, but I don't buy it. How can demand "plummet" and yet sales be up? The National Association of Realtors used to gin the numbers, month after month, to make housing sales look strong, right up into spring of 2008, playing around with the types of houses or sales included. Also, sales numbers only count contracts, not closings, and there is a 40-50% failure rate on contracts. (As in, I say I'll buy it and then back out. But it counts as a sale!)

In this case, they talk about a 22% increase in "housing starts." What does that mean? New home construction. However, it does NOT mean that any of those homes are sold. Many building companies will build and build simply to stay afloat - they can't stop oeprating or banks will call in previous loans or yank their lines of credit. So housing starts doesn't mean anything. They claim "new and existing home sales are up" - without bothering to give any numbers.

And that leads me to my third problem with that sentence, that the downturn is entering its "fourth year." It is the fourth year off the peak, true, but the bubble popped in late 2007. So, like, a year and a half ago. Even more important, retards like Bloomberg and CNN Money and Fox Business didn't acknowledge any kind of downturn until late summer 2008. They didn't acknowledge it because they didn't know it was there. Housing only goes up! Consumer spending is the key to growth in the new economy! We don't need to produce anything, we only need to refinance! This is the New New Economy, way better than the Old Economy or the tech New Economy! These people are morons.

We're only in "the fourth year" to try to make it get over faster.

They close with that surge of hope, the less-than-expected contraction in February and increased consumer spending. Without mentioning it was 100% from inflation.

But, the article hlpefully ends with a note that O!'s $800 billion spending package will totally stimulate the economy by the end of the year.

Which is true, I guess, if you're a reporter who counts inflation as part of consumer spending. I have a feeling our economy will be stimulated wildly. Almost Weimer like.

The reason GM is a zombie and Chrysler got shot in the head

2009-03-31T10:41:00.003-05:00

Two words: green technology.

GM is the leader in hybrid, electric, and hydrogen technologies. They, overall, have better engine performance and efficiency that almost any other company. They certainly rival Toyota. And they're exploring more efficient batteries, which are the real show-stopper for alternative-fuel engines.

So, O! took it over. They want to force Americans to drive the cars they want them to drive, and GM is closest to what they want. Chrysler, not so much, so they can shape up or die in a couple of months; O! doesn't really care.

Ford (who is only in marginally better shape than GM or Chrysler, and, contrary to popular opinion, did not reject government funds; they took a wait and see approach) is next on the chopping block.

As Joe said, why do you fear the control of a good man?

Clarification

2009-03-31T09:50:00.002-05:00

AoSHQ has finally mentioned HR875, but there are some things to clarify:

It applies to backyard gardens, not just co-ops or small farms.

It applies to produce GROWN FOR CONSUMPTION, not produce grown to sell. So, if I grow tomatoes and eat them myself, I can be regulated by the government.

There is a million dollar per-day, per-infraction fine, which goes directly into the slush fund operating the new FDA-like agency. My guess is that they will pull shenanigans like the IRS, and give anyone who reports an illegal farm a cut of the fine. That makes the agency able to crack down across the country with less effort and manpower, much like the USSR depended on neighbors and families turning on each other. Even the fear of being turned in may be enough to force compliance.

The face of fear

2009-03-30T11:07:00.003-05:00

I got chills this morning. It started with the bailouts last September; it's why I yelled myself hoarse at my congress"man" John Sullivan and Senator Coburn, and everyone else in my state delegation. To no avail, except for Senator Inhofe and Rep. Frank Lucas (hats off, gentlemen).

But this is it. This is the face of the end, people.

The government will back my warranty? Or, as they apparently spell at Harvard, "warantee"? What the hell?

[UPDATE]
Apologies for the grainy image. The top line reads, "Starting today, the United States government will stand behind your warrantee..."

What the hell just happened here?

Geez, I wish I didn't know the answer.

What happened t Protein Wisdom?

2009-03-23T09:08:00.001-05:00

It just says "gone fishing." Noooooo!

Anyway, my Monday workday just got more productive by, like, three hours.

In a cage match between Patterico and Jeff Goldstein...

2009-03-20T17:21:00.002-05:00

Jeff would pound Patterico to the ground then ask if Patterico thought he really meant it or was just unpragmatic in how he put things.

OUTLAW!

You know what? The economy isn't broken.

2009-03-20T15:45:00.005-05:00

Ace has a post up about Obama's economy leadership woes, and he repeats a phrase I've heard a lot. "Fix the broken economy."

Thing is, the economy is not broken. This is exactly how the system is supposed to work.

They're propping it up using artificial means, from Greenspan's and Bernanke's initial messing with interest rates to make the stock market go higher (remember the days of innocence when the PPT was a conspiracy crank's dream, not an acknowledged fact?) to Chuck Schumer bad mouthing IndyMac and causing it to go bust to all of the bailouts and orchestrated failures (WaMu!) and TARP and the latest spending and bailing crap.

Still, the economy is not broken, despite their meddling. This is the system as it works.

Think of it like this: if you get an infection, is your blood "broken" because the white cell and antibody counts jump way up? Or is that what is supposed to happen when you're exposed to a virus? The system is responding as it is designed to respond to a problem.

The economy is a system. In a free market (stop laughing) economy, the economy adjusts to imbalances by having some businesses go under. Occasionally, stocks plummet, big firms go bankrupt, even whole industries are lost. New stuff grows up in their places, resources are reallocated, and life goes on.

I'm not saying it feels good, any more than it feels good to be sick. But the adjustment is natural.

The fundamentals of our economy, at least since the 1990s, have not been strong. Remember all that crap about The New Economy, and how business models didn't need to focus on profits anymore, just stock prices? That tech bubble never really burst. The companies went under, but the investors and investmant houses were kept flush in cash by cheap credit and lax lending standards, done by Bush and Greenspan in the wake of 9/11 to shore up the economy. And the money spigot never turned off. Housing prices were grossly out of whack in comparison to incomes, and the only change in consumer spending was directly related to the looseness of consumer debt, not increasing wealth. That was guaranteed to end badly, like a new college graduate who maxes out their credit card when they get their first "real" job.

Housing and consumer spending, both, grew to about 70% of the population and GDP respectively, from previous levels of 60%, give or take a couple of points. And it was all financed on unsustainable debt loads.

That eventually leads to contractions in housing and consumer spending, falling asset prices, and, yes, short turn realignments in the overall economy.

In other words, the economy of the last 15 years was unsustainable, and we've reached the point where it couldn't be sustained anymore.

That's not "broken." That's normal and healthy. If the government had just left this all alone, we'd be healed within a couple of years. Historically, we've had worse depressions that all recovered within 4-5 years (see 1819, 1885, 1890; in 1819, IIRC, 33% of all banks failed). Only the Depression lasted longer, exacerbated by the Fed and FDR's tinkering.

The economy doesn't need fixed. It needs to be allowed to purge. A couple of days in bed (meaning, a couple of down years) and we'll be fine.

But left and "right" both want "to fix the economy." So, the economy will be fixed but good.

Update on outlaw gardens

2009-03-16T11:37:00.002-05:00

In the comments for the last post, reason wrote:

It'll be like that stupid Flourescent Lightbulb Mandate. Might look good on paper to someone, but falls completely flat in reality. Seriously...how many different kinds of edible flowers are out there? Will that mean that all rose gardens that just-so-happen to contain an edible species will also fall under this law?

My guess is that this will be like those seatbelt laws or having a taillight out. Cops use it as an excuse to pull someone over when they don't have another excuse. "Have sunflowers in your yard? Pansies? Dandelions? And how did you vote again? Sounds like a $5 million fine, and that only goes up every day, till you cut them down..."

Barack Obama brought this up, specifically, in his radio address on Saturday, as an important initiative for consumer safety. It has 40 Democrats sponsoring it in the House, and the general consensus is "if this saves even one life...."

It's insane and counter productive, but the fluorescent lightbulb crap passed.

Watching the hippies freak out when they realize it will shut down their farmers markets is sweet, sweet schadenfreude, but it's not enough to cover the sting of this.

In one sign of hope, according to the Dirt Doctor, the Texas legislature is already proposing legislation that says that this federal bill (for gardening and another one relating to livestock) cannot be applied to the state of Texas. Meaning, they're giving a big screw you to the Congress. I'm going to contact my local state rep and see if he can propose something similar for Oklahoma.

That kind of behavior by the states (which, frankly, I never expected) is a very interesting development. Texas is essentially saying, or trying to say, that the federal government doesn't have the right to pass laws for the state. It may start with a garden, but I'd like to hope that that thinking could extend to other areas.

When food is outlawed....

2009-03-15T14:54:00.003-05:00

Darlene Click mentioned this House bill a few days ago; I heard it mentioned again on the Dirt Doctor organic gardening show on the radio today. It bears repeating.

Basically, the Obama administration is going to put every single garden, from herb gardens in your apartment windowsill to farmers markets to big corporate farms, under government control. You have to track all of your crops and plantings, you have to comply with whatever healthy and safety codes the government institutes, and you have to submit to random surprise inspections of your property. There are no exceptions. If you have a kitchen garden or an apple tree and you're the only one who eats the fruit, you still are under federal government control.

Of course, corporate farms already have all of this tracking and compliance stuff in place, so really this is just a way of preventing individuals and small farmers from growing their own food, with the stick of a million dollar fine per day, per infraction (which the new agency gets to keep for itself), up to 10 years in federal prison — and there is no judicial review or process necessary to seize and condemn food and (presumably) farmlands.

This is a measure of control. Like limiting gun ownership or mandating state education. This is cuts out individualism; no one is allowed to make it on their own anymore.

On the upside, going OUTLAW became that much easier.

E pur si muove.

2009-03-15T14:47:00.002-05:00

Guns and ammo are flying off the shelf still. Last fall, when the uptick started, the feds instituted a rule that any person purchasing five guns in one week got on a watch list. In January, this was lowered to three; it's been lowered again to two.

Despite this, one guy I knew called an online gun dealer to purchase a pistol. This particular model, the gun seller said, he had had 100 in stock when he came in to work that morning. By 2pm, when my friend called to place an order, they were down to 59 guns in stock, and he expected to sell out by the end of the day.

I went to Wal-Mart to check out some ammo for a 9mm. They were out of stock. Almost all of their ammo is out of stock. The guy at the counter said that they sell out almost as soon as it comes in; if you're not there when it gets shelved, you just won't get any.

If I were a politician, I'd be noticing and probably be scared.

So where did the money go?

2009-03-15T12:02:00.003-05:00

This is all hypothetical. And random thoughts on the economy. And all my stats are from memory, because my lunch is heating in the oven and I'm not going to take the time to look up all the stats. (There's warming food, people!) I may update later if I say anything grossly wrong....

Okay, last week, Citi and BofA both announced that they were expecting to turn a profit this year and, therefore, don't need any more bailout money. This is, on the surface, bogus. Citi announced that in the middle of its negotiations for a fourth bailout in four months. That's the sign of a profitable business! Also (and here's where the memory kicks in), Citi has something like 1.8 trillion dollars in loan "assets."

Now, roughly half of all mortgages made from 2000 to 2008 were subprime or alt-A, and looking at the performance of those loans, basically all of them are going to default. That is also true for other sorts of loans — car loans, personal loans, credit cards — for "high-risk" borrowers. Running the math at about $14 trillion per year in consumer debt, most of which is paid off in monthly payments, you're still probably counting on $2-3 trillion per year of bad debt. (I am just gassing here.)

Okay, so, going back to Citi, that means that they could be looking at a default rate somewhere between $600 billion and $1 trillion on their "debt portfolio." They have received $45 billion in cash and about $400 billion in "guarantees" for their debts. That's way short of whatever real losses they're looking at.

In other words, no way in hell they're profitable.

When Chase took over Washington Mututal last fall, both Citi and Bank of America were significantly closer to insolvency than WaMu was. Chase simply started courting Sheila Bair at the FDIC with big dinners and flashy presentations, trying to convince her that WaMu needed to be taken over. Then a whisper campaign started in Seattle, where most of WaMu's depositors were, and that triggered a run on the bank which pushed it into insolvency, at precisely the right time (and for the right price) that Chase have been soft-selling Bair on.

But the point is, Citi and BofA were facing failure at least as early as last August because of bad loans. Their bailout cuts simply aren't enough to cover their liabilities, and that's assuming that they don't have some heinous exposures that make their situation even worse. (Like, if Citi was running at 80% subprime/alt-A instead of 50%, or BofA having massive debts to illegal aliens, a customer group they intentionally cultivated.)

So, why are they suddenly claiming a profit?

My initial guess was a pump and dump. Right now, none of the rules about "executive compensation" that the President and Congress of been bandying apply to Citi and BofA. But there are already indications that could change with future bailouts and, possibly, even by changing the terms of the previous bailouts. (Wells Fargo and other solvent or solvent-enough banks are already pitcing fits about having been forced to take TARP funds and are trying to find ways to send the money back.) So, let's say I'm the executive board at Citi. The CEO makes a big speech about how awesome things are now, the stock prices shoot up, they put on a happy face for as long as their cash reserves hold out (say, through the next waves of resets in the spring and summer), and they string it along enough to cash the checks for their golden parachutes, then they all jump off that sinking ship and the whole thing breaks up in fall, while all the executives are safely away and living on private islands or something.

My brother had an even better idea. Again, Citi has $1.8 trillion in consumer debts, and probably close to a trillion of it is bad. Paulson cashed out $2 trillion last fall — not TARP money, just stack of cash printed by the Treasury and the Fed — and gave it to someone. What if half went to Citi and half to BofA? It pays off all their bad debts, or at least enough to stay afloat, in a way that no sane government, and certainly not the anti-bailout population, would have approved of publicly. And, all of a suddent, Citi and BofA have no more bad debts and suddently can turn a profit.

It will be interesting to see what happens if Bloomburg ever gets its FOIA request for that information. If you have a Citi mortgage or credit card, how likely are you to pay it off? If you're Wells Fargo or a small regional bank, do you sue to get all of your bad debts erased? What happens to other faltering industries, like manufacturing, cars, and airlines? How many hands will start sticking out, and if the government slaps them away, what happens next?

An important thing to remember is that everyone lies. I had a boss once who repeated that every day: everyone is a liar. And he was right.

The government claimed in February that January saw 1% growth, not adjusted for inflation. And then it came out that January had double the inflation rate they'd expected, right about .8% (wow - mathing the "growth" in GDP!). Last week, they're suddenly saying that January grew 1.8%, adjusted for inflation! Miracle of miracles! And they revised the numbers for contractions in December and February, they're claiming retail sales are UP 7% if you exclude cars - yet retail store purchasing (as in the stock they're buying) is down 10%.

And Citi and BofA will be profitable for every quarter this entire year. (I can't believe they sold that line and I really can't believe anyone bought that, but whatever.)

Winston Smith just can't update the numbers fast enough.

Within a couple of months, everything will be synchronized to show clear and always-anticipated growth, minimal contraction, rising home sales, and profitable banks.

But it's all a lie.

Citi is not profitable. BofA is not profitable. The GDP is not growing. Inflation is not in the single digits. They're all lying. It's just a matter of trying to find out where and how.

This was my thought, too.

2009-03-06T14:27:00.002-06:00

Obama's Tech Twit Conference Will Destroy Us All.

Basically, Obama is getting some old manager from Google, the guy who started Twitter, someone who has a T-shirt website, and a guy who posts on MySpace all day as a braintrust on the economy.

It's on Twitter, which is fitting. What's sad is how many of those twenty-somethings don't realize they sound retarded and that today isn't a grand day for "young entrepreneurs."

But read the Valley Wag take-down, 'cause that is way better.

The environmental failure of democracy...

2009-03-06T09:51:00.002-06:00

... leads to green custard in the face.

She went on: "The only thing green about Peter Mandelson is the slime coursing through his veins."

And she added: "I don't want to get up early in the morning and throw custard at Peter Mandelson but I don't have a choice because democracy has failed us.

Well, okay then.

You know what else is a great thread?

2009-03-05T19:52:00.002-06:00

This.

It describes the fairness and fickleness of fate, the current housing crisis, and dating. Every time I read it, it makes me laugh. It may also possibly reference Futurama, and that's never a bad thing.

If you read the comments ...

2009-03-05T19:49:00.002-06:00

... at Ace's post here, you'll find a nice discussion about seeds and quality investment advice.

That was a fun thread.

I have to start posting stuff now

2009-03-05T19:47:00.002-06:00

Someone not my dad or my friend Sheila mentioned they're going to read my blog. (Hi, reason!) So, I have to start posting stuff now.

I think this post is a good start.

Ready to lead from day one

2009-03-05T19:37:00.006-06:00

Two nominees have dropped out of consideration to serve under Sec. Geithner at Treasury.

That leaves him, according to the article, with no assistant secretaries or deputies. The big problem, as they put it delicately, is that there are no authorized delegates to make decisions and represent the Treasury Department at meetings or with "stakeholders."

In other words, the guy supposedly running both the banking and auto industries now has no way to interact with those industries. He's uninformed. And the leaders within those industries have no way to gauge what he's thinking or planning.

That's awesome. Because that's just what Wall Street needs.

The O! vetters claim that neither woman (Annette Nazareth, nominee for chief deputy, and Caroline Atkinson, nominee for undersecretary of international affairs) had any problems with taxes during the vetting process. Both of them elected to drop out on their own for "personal reasons."

I am going to put aside for a moment that there is really no reason to have confidence that the "vetters" would uncover any tax problems. They always seemed blindsided before.

The point is, for whatever reason, is that Geithner is still going it alone. A month and a half into the administration, the former head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, a man not unconnected in financial circles, cannot find a single person to fill a single post within his department.

In fairness, though, it's not like they could have seen any of this financial thing coming. The stock market didn't start its slide till Inauguration Day, so it could have taken them off guard.

They're still learning the ropes and all.

Oh, good, I'd forgotten.

2009-02-21T15:27:00.002-06:00

Obama wants to...

... maintain the tax on estates worth more than $3.5 million, instead of letting it expire next year. And he proposes "a fairly aggressive effort on tax enforcement" that would target tax havens and corporate loopholes, among other provisions, the official said.

Sounds like new cabinet appointments are coming!

Meanwhile, there is some concern about raising taxes in a recession/worst depression in known history (/sarc). But that's crazy talk!

[S]enior White House adviser David Axelrod said in an interview that the tax proposals reflect the ideas that won the election last fall.

I'm glad they keep mentioning that they won the election. I would forget otherwise.

Oh, we're only now at November levels?

2009-02-19T15:36:00.005-06:00

I can do math like a Wall Street analyst!

To wit:

After the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) tested the Nov 21 intraday low of 7,449, we ended the day with a small bounce.

This was not surprising. November's intraday low should serve as a support level.

I would define "testing" as approaching, not breaking. But, that's semantic, and the intraday trading was only 2 points lower than the November 21 low (7447.55), so we'll give him that.

But where's the recovery bounce? We ended the day at 7465.95. That blows away last November's low (7552.29) by 86 points. There's no bounce there. We set a new 10-year low, or something. It's like on Monday, when we hit 7552.60, and everyone was reporting we were "within a point" of the previous low. If by "point" you mean "30 cents," then that analysis was spot on.

Mainly, though, like Charles Rotblut, CFA, of Zach's Investment Research, I think it's part of financial reporters' "spin." And by spin, I mean flat-out intentional lie in an attempt to make our economy nothing but shiny Hope and Change. Because A New Era Has Begun(tm).

Realtors lied about the direction of housing well into 2008 (Hello, last spring! Looking good, there!) until they simply couldn't spin the numbers anymore. Last months' "unexpected surge in spending of 1%"? Wasn't inflation adjusted, so, quietly, this week they announce that inflation was 8 times higher than they'd anticipated (.8% instead of .1% for wholesalers and producers). Hmm. So, maybe, 1% increases in retail sales, adjusted for inflation, were, um, actually drops? Anyone think?

Much like today's market "bounce" still ended 86 lower than it's lowest low in almost a decade.

See, the New New Economy won't be like the Old New Economy... It's different here...

What the hell

2009-02-19T10:10:00.003-06:00

A sweet bedtime story.

A man had an anti-Obama sign in his car window. (Actually, it was an anti-abortion sign. "Abort Obama, not the unborn.") The cops pull him over for making threats against the President. The Secret Service says that wasn't a threat — but they still run over to his house to do a thorough search to make sure he's not "a member of any hate groups."

This is evil. This is psychotic.

The hardest phone call I've ever made was to the Secret Service in OKC to complain. It took a few minutes to push in the numbers, and I was shaking when I did. They're Treasury. They could have me audited, they could freeze my accounts. They could toss my house to see if I belong to any "hate groups." Or they could do nothing.

But letting them scare me into saying nothing is the same as not having freedom of speech at all. Because I, you know, can't actually speak freely. And at least I'm on the right side of the argument here.

So, call! The Secret Service OKC office is 405-810-3000. Speaking truth to power feels good.

Musings

2009-02-09T18:36:00.003-06:00

So, in his first two weeks in office, O! managed to:

Irritate Germany, France, Britain, and the rest of the EU in a trade dispute.
Get India to tell him he's on the wrong side of Kashmir.
Have Putin and Russia begin "sabre rattling," to quote the Financial Times.
Have Iran launch a satellite for guiding nuclear weapons and "normalize" its nuclear program.
Have it come out that he violated the Logan Act and had envoys treasonously meet with Syria and Iran to work out new foreign policy - and this astonishing display of weakness and ignorance prompted the confidence of Achmadenijad in the previous point.
Have North Korea test launch missiles that can reach Alask or Hawaii.
See nine bank failures, the first since October.
Screw up troop deployments to Afghanistan.

Two weeks, people. He has done worse with two weeks in office of just wandering around and being weak than President Bush did when he invaded Iraq.

Good times.

Obama reads "My Pet Goat"

2009-02-05T09:37:00.003-06:00

How has no one made this analogy yet?

I love that O! actually did what everyone (wrongly) accused President Bush of doing: freaking off in a bad situation, shutting down mentally, and darting off to the nearest elementary school to read children's books for a bizarre photo op.

The new age of hope is glorious.

Oh, I'm still not reading the Corner.

2009-01-29T09:11:00.002-06:00

I got that Stuttaford link below by following Instapundit. My one-person boycott of National Review continues.

Although, I think I may end up not reading anything online at all for awhile. (I've already cut down to just Protein Wisdom, Instapundit, and Ace of Spades.) There's too much "we hope O! does a super awesome job!" and "we all know markets don't work - let's try bailouts!" on the conservative interwebs lately. The stupid burns.

I don't think the bailout absolutists appreciate the danger, either.

2009-01-29T08:59:00.003-06:00

Andrew Stuttaford quotes a Financial Times article — "In a world of debt and deflation, inflation is our friend. Being responsible means recognising that truth." — in support of the inflation that the bailouts and freeflowing printing presses and spurring. Inflation, theoretically, makes debt "cheaper" the debt is long-term: e.g., 30 years of inflation drastically lowers the burden of the debt of a mortgage. For big debts, like government bonds or the trillions managed by big banks, inflation has a huge impact on their ability to repay because they begin processing much more money (the currently, inflated money) than they pay out (on old, un-inflated debt).

Of course, all financial institutions will adapt very quickly to high inflation. We can't "inflate" our way out of debt because these banks aren't trading in long-term debt. Financial institutions were trading in short term debt, like 3 months, sometimes even as short as a few days, even if the debts they're trading were for long terms. The money (debt) used to finance those loans was borrowed on short terms. That's far too short for inflation to work, unless you're Zimbabwe and hyperinflation is outpacing the debt cycle.

Mr. Stuttaford ends his summary with "another undercurrent that runs through Mr. Odey's argument, the rising danger of political and social ferment, a danger that is often overlooked by market fundamentalists."

I am a market fundamentalist. I think he is underestimating the effect of inflating my entirely out of my life-savings, any hope of future ownership, crushing public debt and taxation, and possibly out of my work in order to save a handful of rich companies from going bankrupt and to prevent a temporary (less than 5 years, if the government butts out) downturn in the stock market. Changing the rules midgame only happens to make sure one side can't lose. It doesn't prevent "social and political ferment," it creates it. This "bailout," this "stimulus" is cheating, taxation, payoffs to the rich and connected. It's upsetting the entire concept of doing work, of owning property, and of conducting business. When a bubble breaks, it should break. Even if people get hurt, there is comfort in a stable and predictible system. People like Mr. Stuttaford, Secretary Paulson, President Bush, Obama, and everyone else (I'm looking at you, Rep. John "Flaming Douchetard" Sullivan) is upsetting everyone else's system for a) rich people to avoid loss and b) un-creditworthy poor people to spend other people's money with no fear of paying it back.

And for that, he wants normal people like me to face 60% or higher taxation and the very real threat of having my business or home seized at someone else's whim.

Smell that political and social ferment? It's coming because of Socialist crap like this, not from "market fundamentalism."

I'm still not reading the Corner

2009-01-03T17:04:00.003-06:00

I've been off for almost two months now, except for following Mark Steyn's posts, and then only through direct links on his site. I lost all respect for them with their ninny-ism about the bailout and their constant carping on Sarah Palin, with a bizarre fuzziness for John McCain. I'm off them for good, and it's going well.

Hysterical people, whether elected representatives (I mean you, John Sullivan) or elites (NRO), do not deserve to have any power.

I've quit reading Hot Air, too, because the commenters are getting dumber. The only places that strike the perfect balance of moroseness, defiance, and sarcasm are Protein Wisdom, Ace of Spades, and Jim Treacher, when he remembers to post something. So I can get my fix of sanity, when I need it.

I think Mark Steyn is feeling the same doldrums. He hasn't been saying much lately.

My guesses for the new year

2009-01-03T16:53:00.004-06:00

In no particular order:

Blago is not indicted for anything, and neither is Rahm Emanual.

Burris is seated as a Senator (with full rights, regardless of whatever "separate but equal" claptrap Reid is peddling now).

Franken is seated in the Senate, without being certified by the secretary of state or any fuss from the Senate proper.

Bank of America fails.

Citigroup fails.

AIG fails.

The press coverage of Obama is grotesquely fawning and oppressively frequent until about July or August, and then it peters off until he is mostly ignored, all as a cover for him. If you can't say something good...

The stock market goes inexplicably up until about March, despite a steady stream of unusually bad economic news, and then it plummets for the rest of the year, but without much coverage.

There is an uptick (10%, noticeable, but not huge) in hate crimes, mainly black on white and black/Hispanic.

Hank Paulsen stays on as Treasury Secretary because Summers is deemed to be too inexperienced to handle the size and frequency of bailouts.

Obama raises taxes for every income bracket.

The cost of bailouts initiated in 2009 will top $35 trillion.

There will be no major terrorist attack against US interests.

Russia will invade another former satellite nation.

There will be one major Muslim riot, a la the cartoon riots.

I'm often wrong, so I'm expecting these are wrong, too. But if even one is right, this year will provide some entertainment value.

The Tulsa SPCA Sucks

2008-12-22T09:50:00.003-06:00

I saw a dog, probably 20lbs, though he would be at least 40lbs if he weren't starving. All black, floppy ears and feet, so I think he's still a puppy. He was wandering around Sperry this morning, rooting in trash cans for food. I bought a bag of food at the gas station and gave it to him, and then began trying to call animal shelters to see if there is someone who can take him in.

(I already have three stray dogs and two stray cats, so I'm at my limit.)

Most of the shelters are closed this morning, so I'll try again in the afternoon, but the SPCA was open. And wouldn't take him. I have called the SPCA on at least four different occasions over the last two years to try to drop off a cat or dog before it starved, and they have never once taken it. They have empty kennels when I drive by, but they have "no room" for any new animals.

Funny, that. Despite the name, guess they don't really care about, you know, animals. Or preventing any cruelty.

The SPCA sucks. They're a lying fraud of a sucky poseur charity. They may as well go full PETA and just shoot animals, illegally dump their bodies, and pocket the donation money. At least then the animals aren't starving to death.

I hate you, SPCA.

UPDATE:
I give money to the Stafford Animal Shelter in Livingston, Montana, where I used to live. They are a no-kill shelter and they take in any animal, no questions asked. They are a truly wonderful shelter; you can check them out at http://staffordanimalshelter.org/.

There is supposedly another no-kill shelter near where I live, in Collinsville, the Ward-Wiseman Animal Shelter. Going by their website (http://www.wwahonline.org/), they look like good people. I am going to call them this afternoon about the stray black dog, and keep my fingers crossed.

Wait, I don't feel any different!

2008-11-05T08:52:00.003-06:00

O! is king, and I don't feel changed! His entire administration is a failure! Selected, not elected! Where's my hope?

Need to go fill up on caffeine while it's still around. Calms the nerves, you know.

On the upside

2008-11-05T08:50:00.001-06:00

I've lost any interest in running for elected office, ever. That's a weight off.

And the first and worst hit states will be the turncoats, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania. And Michigan, for good measure. Kharma's a b*tch.

So there's that.

Thoughts on why O! is bad.

2008-11-05T08:44:00.002-06:00

Mark Steyn thinks we're on an inexorable slide to European-style statism, and O!'s election (legit or not - doesn't really matter now, does it?) is a signal of that.

Where else is there to go? What other nation on earth espoused freedom and independence the way we once did?

I do not want to be taken care of.

Winston Churchill said that the world thought America was soft and complacent, but he knew we had the will to fight because of the American Civil War, a war of conviction which "was fought to the last bloody inch." Our two defining wars, the Revolution and the Civil War, were wars of principle.

I don't know that we have the principle to fight now or the intelligence and will to stay to those principles.

Good morning, comrades!

2008-11-05T07:34:00.001-06:00

Welcome to the USSA!

(Joke redistributed from Protein Wisdom.)

I know I'm a bad person...

2008-10-16T15:00:00.002-05:00

But I'm cheering for the stock market to tank. I don't think we've found the bottom, anyway, and it's going to hit 7000 (or lower) and stay there for awhile because it is inevitable. The real economy has hit its wall, and it's not the "credit crunch" like same bad DC cereal. It's called "budget," as in, the money limit that lower- and middle-class people can spend and the highest amount of debt they can carry. The end. No more shopping sprees and vacations and home equity ATMs. Ergo, personal spending drops and the economy contracts. C'est la vie.

At least the days when the market drops, I'm tricked into believing that all those Wall Street people who keep bleating about their intelligence and degrees have actually understood the concept of "budgets." That's normal. It's painful, but it's healthy, so I find it comforting. Then there are swings like today, and I just want to slap those smug morons in their smirky, self-satisfied little faces. They're dragging it out! It's some bizarre hallucination, and as soon as they begin to sober up, they binge on X and acid they bought on margin.

It's only all the bafflement about "who could have seen this coming?" and "but we went Ivy League!" that bother me so much. If they didn't keep marching around in little streamers that read "The Smartest People in the Room," I'd probably be much calmer, downright zen. Instead I'm refreshing AOL Finance like a DJIA junkie and shaking my fist at the NYC-DC complex.

That and the idea of bailing all these bonus-addled Ivy Leaguers out. Again. Seriously, if they're so intelligent and their companies are so terrific, how come they need a bailout from plebes like me?

I miss President Bush

2008-09-02T22:16:00.002-05:00

I do.

I disagreed to the point of spitting nails (and angry phone calls and emails) over Harriet Miers, Dubai Ports, and amnesty. I am disappointed in nation-building in Iraq and a failure to engage Iran. I'm miffed about his signing McCain-Feingold.

But President Bush is a good and decent man. For all my disagreements, I disagree with him honestly — I think he has sincere reasons for his positions, a nearly unshakable belief in the innate goodness of people. I disagree, but he is sticking by his convictions.

He is also a gracious man. I am not a gracious person, but I aspire to be. He is affable and good-natured to people who are intentionally cruel to him; he is magnanimous and humble. He was a rock on September 11 and clear-eyed on September 12, and whatever his failures (in my opinion) on fighting an existential struggle against Islam and the inherent decay of liberalism since then, he was the only man who could lead us into that necessary struggle on that day. He will be remembered for that and he deserves to be.

And no one has mentioned him at the RNC convention. No one has said thank you for your service. No one has given him credit for his leadership or his conviction against a groundswell of bitterness and blindness and fatigue.

Mr. President, I have disagreed with you. I hope I have always respected you. You have given to this country for eight years, given a measure of devotion at a time (particularly in your first term) when the country would have been lost otherwise.

You are a good man. I hope I can learn a small part of your grace and kindness; you made it look easy and you've set a high mark. Thank you for your service, and God bless you.

I'll miss you.