Tortured headline, I know, but I don't care.
This brilliant article on RealClearolitics by Froma Harrop (hat tip -- my brother, who told me to read it) from the Providence Journal lays out how confirming a staunch anti-Roe majority on the SCOTUS would destroy -- DESTROY, I SAY!!-- the Republican party by arousing hordes of angry pro-choicers. The angy, abort-o Huns are on the doorstep!
Unfortunately, some flaws in her reasoning. (Gasp!)
First, there's this:
We speak of the "security moms" who in 2004 cared more about terrorism than about abortion.
They also never thought the right to abortion was at risk. Bush has always balanced his social-conservative talk with reassurances that abortion would remain available. When he urges abortion foes to fight on, pro-choice sophisticates dismiss it all as background noise.
But serious incursions on the right to abortion would change that. I wouldn't want to be a Republican politician the day that suburban mothers learn there's no legal way to end their 16-year-old daughter's unwanted pregnancy.
Number of problems:
Parental notification laws. Something pro-lifers support and pro-choicers don't. Why? Is it because pro-lifers want a parent-child bonding experience on the way to thte abortion clinic? Or, perhaps, because most people would a) want a voice in their own child's health care and b) because maybe they wouldn't be as quick to kill their grandchild as a panicky teen would be. I'm thinking (as do many pro-choicer's, I'd wager) that b is a pretty strong possibility.
This is also something of a non-sequitor. The fastest growing age-group of women seeking abortions isn't teenagers (which is
dropping), it's women in their mid-twenties -- in other words, women whose birth control failed.
Secondly,
80% of women who have an abortion are unmarried. As in, not security moms (although roughly half are mothers themselves). As in, not the demographic
Harrop's saying would rise up to demand their minor daughters get abortions.
Secondly, how was Bush being sneaky-clever to all the pro-choicers out there during the campaign, saying he was pro-life but not so much, wink, wink? I thought that's what he was doing with the pro-
lifers, overtly and super-sneakily, what with the cloning and stem-celldebates, the big deal about appointing conservative judges, etc. I thought the whole point of the judges debate during the election ultimately came down to Roe.
And do not believe for a second that pro-choicers would accept anyone moderately pro-life. Remember the outcry when Hilary simply said abortion was a tragedy for anyone? How dare she denigrate a beautiful life choice! Al Gore had to flip to pro-choice before he could run as VP (just like Bush Senior had to in 1980); Tim Roemer from Indiana had to drop out of the race for DNC chair because he was pro-life. A few moderates (Guiliani and Schwarzenegger spring to mind) on abortion can and do inhabit the GOP, but the rabid pro-choice masses are solidly Democrat, and those are the ones that swear by the sacredness of Roe.
And we continute one with our story:
The other problem in overturning Roe is that it would send the abortion issue down to the state level. Republicans don't want angry pro-choice voters rushing to the polls in 50 states. They should recall their clever move last year to put a gay-marriage ban on the Ohio ballot. It was meaningless but did draw more conservatives to the polls, who also voted for Bush. The trick works for Democrats, too.
Yeah, remember what I just wrote? And let's ponder the gay marriage thing. Aren't those pretty much teh same people voting on abortion? If it were on the ballet in any state, it would be a massive GOTV effort for both sides, advertising, campaigning, mudslinging, and fighting for months in advance. No one is going to sit back and say "yeah, sure, whatever, Roe was overturned, my work is done." And it probably wouldn't go well for pro-choicers. Things like partial-birth abortion and
parental notification are a shoo-in basically everywhere.
Places like the South and Midwest would have much stronger restrictions or, possibly, close to an outright ban.
And interestingly enough, women are very slightly more likely to favor tighter restrictions or outright banning than men. Go figure.
Then she goes into the Roberts nomination for a while, about how we don't know where he personally stands on abortion, but he could try to overturn Roe, but he might not, but then again he could. (Seriously -- an article should have a
single point.)
Then we're mad at Congress for not funding abortions for servicepeople/families (even though Americans overwhelmingly do not support taxpayer-funded abortions). Horrors and the vapors! See, overseas Americans can't get abortions by American doctors on bases. Foreign groiups that perform abortions can't qualify for American aid. See the trend?
And then my personal favorite, because she didn't even try to follow this one through.
Republicans may not worry much about limiting the abortion rights of the poor, foreigners or even U.S. soldiers (most of whom are from modest backgrounds), but new restrictions would have nowhere to go but up the income ladder. And the upper middle class would not tolerate them.
But then
in the very next sentence, her "poor people want 'em and can't kill" spiel spins like a liberal who doesn't know her issue:
Astute Republicans know this. Americans at all income levels oppose abortion, but the higher you go, the fewer opponents there are.
I thought poor people wanted to kill babies, and evil Republicans forced them to breed while rich people got to kill their babies. But then we find out that the lower on the economic totem you go the
more likely you are to be pro-life. Hmmm.
By the way, interesting point -- 89% of respondants to an ABC/WaPo poll supported either
state legislatures,
state courts, or
both to handle abortion laws. Where, exactly, should that leave nationally-mandated Roe?