Bold predictions for the end of the year
- Official unemployment is at 14.5%. (Unofficial/reality will, of course, be higher.)
- The Dow Jones Average will be at 7100, possibly lower.
- There will be a major terrorist or rogue state attack against a Western country (not the US).
- Cap and trade will have been passed.
- Health care socialization will have been passed.
- At least one major, direct income tax will have been passed. (Remember - Obama has some kind of tax advisory group preparing a report for him, due in early December. Merry Christmas!)
That's all I got for now.
The Palin Implosion
It got me called a troll at both
Ace of Spades and
Protein Wisdom, but I think Palin's resignation signals the end of any national (or even Alaska-wide) political ambitions for Sarah Palin.
I can't see any other outcome than that, for one of two reasons.
First option: She can't put her family through it anymore. For a solid year, people have been digging through her trash, making sex jokes about two of three of her daughters, making mean-girl jokes about the third (remember the snark about Piper smoothing down Trig's hair at the convention?), and making wildly cruel allegations about the birth of her second son: the speculation that he's the result of incest between her husband and daughter, that she tried to have him aborted, that she cause his disability through poor pre-natal care (wtf, by the way). Troopergate and the ethics probes. Damage to her husband's business.
So, option 1 (and the one I believe), is that she simply will not put her family through it anymore, and she's out.
The thing is, that reasoning holds forever.
It will never get better. The press will never be less vicious, the personal attacks and money-draining lawsuits will never end, and the GOP will never back her up. If she thinks this situation is too much for her family right now (and who wouldn't), then she would have to recognize that this is it, period. No more electoral politics.
Option 2, in my opinion, puts her in a terribly unfavorable light, but this is the one the dextrosphere seems to be yammering after. In this scenario, Palin is hampered terribly by holding her office. She can't spout off on television, she has too many responsibilities to do speaking tours or fundraisers or media appearances. She's hamstrung by being governor and being bound to the party line, yet she is still in the bullseye of the only target the MSM or Democrats are aiming at.
In this scenario, she's deciding to fight back with an eye to a national office (ideally President, but possibly senator). So, she is ditching her elected office in a bold bid to promote her conservative principles (and herself) in the lower 48.
If that is the case, I wouldn't vote for that woman no matter who she ran against. (And, disclaimer, I don't think this option is right.) In this case, she decided that being governor of a strategic state, and a state she purportedly loves, at the edge of an economic freefall and energy-based turmoil, is too confining for her own personal ambition, so she ditches them
halfway through her first term because the state just isn't going it for her anymore and she wants to concentrate on getting herself a better position.
Her followers can spin that a lot of ways — she can't defend herself from personal attacks, or she'll better serve the cause out in the open, or Alaska isn't getting its money's worth — but it comes down to saying that putting her personal (and arrogantly untried) ambition is significantly more important to her than honoring her commitments, and that she is simply too good to have to finish out
her first frieaking term in major office.
Dude, not even Obama pulled that one. Neither did Hillary. And right there, we just named the two most unqualified people to run for the presidency in recent memory.
If she did option 2, no matter how appealing she is personally or how badly the conservative movement needs a leader, she is unfit for office. She cannot be trusted, and she is irresponsible. And delusional: the Presidency (as dim-bulb Obama is just starting to figure out) is a difficult job. You don't get to learn on the job. This is my complaint about Harriet Miers, redux: there are thousands of people who have actually devoted themselves to learning this stuff. I don't mean Romney or Huckabee (who can now both run as governors
who finished their first terms), but even people like Rush Limbaugh or Mark Steyn, who are more familiar with a broad array of policy positions. Or people in business who actually have executive experience (policy dud that she is, Carly Fiorelli comes to mind). Rome wasn't built in a day; neither are presidents. Obama affirmative-actioned his way in and is winging it. Look how successful that is. As McCain's VP or as governor of Alaska, Palin was in a position to gain experience, to hone her instincts. If she decided she's too good for training, she doesn't deserve another shot.
And it would not just be me. Her opponents in
any election could ream her with thise, and there would be no defense. "When the going gets tough, Sarah Palin passes the ball and leaves office!" Her state cannot be too happy with her, since they elected her and her "plummeting" poll numbers are still around 70% approval, so they weren't exactly leaving her out to dry. And anyone who has ever had a rough job and didn't quit isn't going to feel a lot of sympathy with her. She was elected to four years and, her first time in, bailed halfway through. Winners never quit, and quitters....
Can you hear the TV ads?
If she thinks she was doing this to position herself for bigger and better things without the fetters of doing her job, then she (and her followers) are delusional.
I would like to reiterate, I do not think the second option is true.
What is really disturbing to me is how desperately so many people on the right
want it to be true. As
Ace*** said, "For anyone NOT named Sarah Palin, you do not contort yourself into strange pretzels trying to come up with counterintuive-bordering-on-non-Euclidean reasons why this actually makes her a stronger candidate."
But it's not option 2 (I really think), and the rumors of a scandal are ludicrous. (Really? Scandal? Like there is a closet left un-tossed in the fevered search for her skeletons?) So option 1: persecution.
This is a deep and worrisome victory for the Democrats/MSM. Palin joins an elite group of Gingrich and Bork who have been hounded, ridiculed, and lied out of public office. If it is option 1, then the tragedy is that a decent woman had her family used as a cudgel against her to keep her out of office. Whatever else, that's just not fair.
*** And, yes, considering how wildly wrong Ace was about the bailouts and TARP, it does give me pause to think that we're in agreement now. But that doesn't mean he, or I, am wrong now. Although, some of the lefty trolls on Protein Wisdom actually made sense, too. Yes, more pause. I'm still not seeing the flaw in my reasoning. But I am scared.
Unexpected to whom?
Seriously, the stupid on Wall Street is zapping any sympathy I had for their innocent greed and naivete that led to the economic situation.
Stocks reversed early gains Tuesday and moved lower after a private research group said consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June.
Investors had been expecting the Conference Board's measure of consumer sentiment to hold steady following big jumps in April and May.
Okay, I hate to break the news people, but everything reported in April and May was a lie. Remember when stocks briefly dipped because they were convinced that
the Labor Department was lying about
the number of jobs lost? (Which, by the way,
they were. In their own report, they said there were 345,000 jobs lost — not over 500,000, hooray! — except that 787,000 people lost their jobs.) Suddenly, housing prices have been adjusted to have dropped 18% in April*** - like they haven't already known that for 2 months, but apparently government/banker types are endlessly gullible. And housing sales didn't so much recover in May
as drop.
Of course, according to the Yahoo article, these stooges looked at a massive surge in oil prices as a reason to send stocks
up yesterday. It takes a real genius to look at rising gas and electricity prices on top of increased inflation as a good thing. And by genius I mean retard.
The thing is, as I've
said before, the government and the financial classes are betting everything on a third quarter recovery. Everything. Jobs that haven't been lost (if corporate profits are down 90%, the only reason not to have matching layoffs is because of a quick recovery), buying and manufacturing haven't dropped completely off a cliff. Because if the downturn — the worst EVAH! — is only going to last another three months, why panic?
But normal people have to live this. They know, for example, if their house is selling for a lot less than they asked or if it won't sell at all. They know if their credit cards are maxed out, so they can't buy any more. They know if their loans are going unpaid. And they adjust accordingly. Without a silver bullet, they know that their own lifestyles are going to require adjustments. So why is this such a shock to bankers and government types?
Welcome to the third quarter, folks.
*** I heard that on the radio today, for year over year numbers in April, and it's in the Yahoo story. CNN is
toeing the party line with about a 7% YOY drop in prices, and claiming the April improved from March. Let me clear my throat....
bwahahahahahahahaha!Hooray, economy!
Oh, another personal update
I have friends who have kindly offered me their address in Texas (won't even take a dime in rent!) until my project is over and I can find a place of my own. They are good people. However, my dogs - Mal, Jayne, and Harvey - are still in Oklahoma, living in the house I shared with my brother. As is my beloved cat Winston. And a red-eared slider turtle that my brother rescued and patched up after a run-in with a car last week. And my garden.
I'm a little homesick.
So, instead of spending the weekend working on my project (as I really need to) or finding a place of my own so that I can quit living on the good-nature of friends (as would be polite) I am spending weekends back home, tending my garden and my pets.
But I'm checking out realtor.com for land sites and looking at panelized home companies (a Lego-style building project for me and my dad; father-daughter bonding!), so that counts, right?
Something that bothered me today
I saw a married woman, one of those friendly acquaintances who I say hi to all the time, chat about her kids, that kind of thing. She was holding hands with her boss and wandering around a mall, and as soon as she saw me, she dropped hands and stepped two steps away from him. She said hi and chatted for a minute like everything was normal, and then I went on.
I'd like to think I'm suspicious, but I've had a terrible, terrible feeling ever since. Thing is - she has kids. For the sake of her family, I won't give any details (you never know what gets cached on Google) but they had a terrible tragedy just a few months ago. I know problems are common in a marriage after serious trauma but - did I mention she has kids? I hate to be all Ozzie-and-Harriet sunbeams and morality, but some things you just shouldn't do to kids. Period. Especially after what they've all been through.
Today, I am sad.
And I really wish I had gone left in Waldenbooks instead of right into Dillard's, because that way I never would have seen this.
Light posting
Light posting is my habit, anyway, but I want to note: this weekend is the Transition to Texas. It is technically a "move" in that my residency is supposed to shift, but I'm really going to be staying with friends of the family for a couple of months until my project is released and I can take some time off (like, a week or less) to find a permanent place.
I'm hoping for a house. I'm thinking 25 acres, and I'd like a Craftsman style house. As long as it's sound in the foundation, I'm willing to do fix-up work. And I'd like to spend $100,000. Or less. (Hear that? That's the sound of my fairy godmother, spinning that pipe dream out of whole cloth. Thanks, fairy godmother!)
An alternative is to find a semi-permanent rental, but no one seems to take pets. What does Texas have against pets? (Although, my current rental is owned by my parents. Apparently landlords in Oklahoma don't like pets, either. In fairness, one half of my landlord couple doesn't, either, but my mom totally overrules him.)
But, the point is, I'm packing my bags and heading Texas-way. Then driving back weekends, as I can swing it, to visit my dog babies and/or check out properties.
Glad this is getting some Drudge play
Drudge is listing
this Washington Examiner atory about partisan-driven closings for Chrysler dealers.
This (like all half-way decent conspiracy theories) is something I totally believe, and I'm glad it's getting some attention. One commenter at Ace's was trying to say that since the National Auto Dealers Association donates 2:1 to GOP candidates and groups, it makes sense that more GOP donors would be closed than Democratic. Except, statistically, shouldn't it be somewhat near 2:1? Not, like, 788:1?
There are two things that are important to remember about the closings (aside from the fact that they aren't necessarily necssary):
- Many of these dealers were profitable. Why would you close someone making money for you?
- Many of those locations, Chrystler/car czar is shopping for a replacement franchise. Even if a profitable franchise is closed because the analysis of the region is bad, why would you shop for a replacement?
Donor lists are available at Open Secrets. The car czar — who apparently had a hand in the "restructuring" scheme — is married to the main DNC fundraiser. Think they don't know who is giving where?
Interesting, is all I say.
Song to end the day
I woke up with
this song in my head, so it's fitting to go to bed with it.
i'm sorry you had to sell the farm
yeah i'm sorry you bet it all
why's it always seem to come down
to a desk and four walls
'cause what you did yesterday
what you said in the past
it no longer holds sway
you fall out of favor fast
Thomas played that a lot during Hillary's losing bid for the Democratic nomination last year. It fit.
It's a crying shame...
... but it
could be a lot worse. A week ago, there was a brief thunderstorm, as I said
earlier, and a bolt of lightning traveled up the cable wire and blew out my cable modem and my routing server. We had rain daily for over three weeks, finally ending in a sunny Sunday yesterday. In one of the stormy reprises on Thursday, five houses burned in varying degrees of destruction. Really, a cable modem and a server are a small thing to lose.
Anyway, the cable modem came in Wednesday, and the power supply came in Thursday. (And Wednesday and Thursday, Melvin completed repairs on the line.) As you've all probably guessed, the power supply was fine, so the replacement did no good. It was the motherboard in my server. However, my brother plugged the hard drives into a spare server (literally, just the week before, Thomas had brought it offline to cut down on the heat in the server closet), and they worked. Huzzah! That had been the great fear, that if the motherboard had fallen, the hard drives had no hope. Like Rohan and Gondor. So, Thomas spent most of Friday getting everything back online: making sure the service were running, getting the email working again, and making sure that the DNS and DHCP services were humming. (For some reason, there was some confusion with IP addresses. Every computer was reassigned a new IP address, instead of its old one, so I was never quite connecting to the computer I thought I was. Oh, how we laughed....) We're back and full strength now, though!
Anyway, that was exciting. I'll be posting again tomorrow, and it will be great.
The day the Internet died
A random blast of lightning during a short thunderstorm yesterday morning killed my Internet. According to the cable guy (Melvin the Awesome), it fried about three miles of wire, heading from roughly my house south. The lightning traveled up the cable wire and killed the ethernet port in the cable modem (which, sadly, still thought it was alive and working, like a crippled Thomas Train), and then traveled to my router and killed it.
My router is also my DHCP server, DNS server, email server, print server, and Active Directory domain controller. So, although my cable is back now thanks to the efforts of Melvin and an overnighted cable modem from Amazon, my personal network is still screwy and it's difficult for some of my computers to talk to each other. I can still talk to my work computer from my laptop (so I can work more or less as normal) and, of course, use that computer alone. But I can't get any of my old emails, so that stinks. And using my VPN is ... fun.
Let us hope that the power supply that comes in tomorrow is all that's necessary to repair my poor, poor router. Her name is auntgertrude; remember her in prayer. Otherwise, I'm going to be in a tight spot.
